NFL Playoff Report: News, Notes and Analysis for AFC Wild Card Matchups

Editor’s note: Throughout the NFL playoffs, Chris Myers and his research team analyze upcoming matchups while providing news, notes and details to access the information an NFL broadcaster uses to prepare for call a game.

Wildcard weekend

Four teams made the playoffs that didn’t make it last year: the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos in the AFC and the Minnesota Vikings and Washington Commanders in the NFC. It is the 35th consecutive year with at least four new playoff teams, although six division champions repeated with three of the four newcomers as wild cards. The Rams went from wild cards to division winners.

This is the first time since 2012 that every playoff team has at least 10 wins. In 2022, no fewer than five of the 14 playoff teams did not win 10 games, and last year the Buccaneers and Packers finished 9-8.

This is the fifth postseason with only one bye in each conference. In the previous four seasons under the current format, four of the top eight finishers reached the Super Bowl. This is the fourth time the Chiefs have been the AFC’s top seed in the Patrick Mahomes era, with two Super Bowl appearances and one Super Bowl victory in the previous three.

Only one of the last four Super Bowls has been won by a bye team (the Chiefs in SB LVII when they beat another top seed, the Philadelphia Eagles). The Chiefs were in third place when they won last year. Tampa Bay in 2020 is the only team to win three road games as the fifth seed to appear in (and win) the Super Bowl. The Rams were in fourth place when they won in 2021 over another fourth place, the Bengals.

ANALYSIS BY CHRIS MYERS: “NFL wild card playoff games have 8 to 12 more cameras on the television broadcast than the average Sunday regular season game. An increase of 10 more is estimated for each round of the postseason, and in the Super Bowl that total, including all cameras, can exceed 100. No sport has more extensive coverage, which is a major factor why NFL dramas produce so many viewers.

“With the additional cameras, producers and directors can dedicate one to cover every prominent figure in the game at all times. I’ll notice different interactions as they develop.”

Breaking down the AFC matchups

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans

Of the six road teams, two are favorites, both in games involving Los Angeles (the visiting Chargers are 3-point picks in Houston, while the home Rams are 1.5-point underdogs to the Vikings).

Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh is in the playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons as an NFL coach. In his three previous appearances, his 49ers went 3-0 in the first few games. Including three CFP playoff games at Michigan, he is 7-4 as a postseason coach.

The Chargers finished the regular season on a three-game winning streak, averaging 36 points per game (after averaging 21 points per game in their first 14 games).

The Texans (10-7) finished 1-5 against teams in the playoff field, 9-2 against the rest. The only victory was over Buffalo on October 6.

The Chargers aren’t much better, going 2-5 against playoff teams, with the wins coming after sweeping Denver.

The Chargers are 12-5 against the spread, 9-2 in their last 11.

The Texans are playing in the wild card round for the eighth time since 2011. And they have always played in the Saturday afternoon time slot. Houston has a good record in those games at 5-2, including a win last year over Cleveland.

MYERS ANALYSIS: “As you look at the footage between the coach and the QB in this case, keep an eye out for how much Jim Harbaugh will seem like a great cheerleader for Justin Herbert. Harbaugh told us earlier this season that he empowers his players and doesn’t get too involved in their decision-making. Herbert emphasized that with Harbaugh and the quarterback position, he has a lot more freedom than ever before.”

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens

Much has been made of the fact that a team hasn’t started the season 0-4 and made the playoffs since the 1992 Chargers.

How about losing the last four? The 2024 Steelers are the first team to lose their final four games and still make the playoffs since the 1999 Lions did so while finishing 8-8 as champions of a weak NFC Central. They are two of only three teams to do so of all time. Those Lions fell tamely in a wild card game to Washington, 27-13.

Pittsburgh averaged just 14.3 points per game over the final four weeks of the season after averaging 24.8 in the first 13 games. With an increase to 27.3 points allowed per game.

Meanwhile, Baltimore is 4-0 in that same stretch, including a handy 34-17 win over the Steelers.

Something for Steelers fans to hold on to? Pittsburgh is 10-2 in playoff games against division opponents, including 3-1 against the Ravens. But Baltimore’s victory came in the last such meeting in 2014.

Furthermore, although they lost in Baltimore a few weeks ago, Pittsburgh still has six wins in its last eight visits to Baltimore.

This will be the 38th meeting between coaches John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin (Wins: Tomlin 21, Harbaugh 16). The only meeting more frequent was that of Curly Lambeau of Green Bay and George Halas of Chicago, who faced each other 49 times between 1921 and 1953.

Will Lamar Jackson overcome his problems in the playoffs? The Ravens are just 2-4 in the postseason under Jackson, scoring more than 20 points only once: a 34-10 victory over Houston in last season’s divisional round. The losses came against four different teams, three of them at home.

It would be the 17th playoff start for Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson, who is 9-7 in his time with the Seahawks. With two early Super Bowl runs, Wilson is off to a 7-2 start in the postseason, 2-5 since 2015. Wilson has scored more than 20 points in 12 of his 16 postseason starts, and managed to win two of the four in which he didn’t. he did it. He has thrown at least one touchdown pass in his last 13 postseason games.

MYERS ANALYSIS: “Mike Tomlin has a knack for conveying emotion with subtle expressions, not exaggerated gestures. But he is one of the most captivating wing figures in the game. He doesn’t interact with his quarterbacks or anyone else, much, “But when he does it’s interesting. Russell Wilson, on the other hand, has a very active presence on the bench with both his teammates and the coaches.”

Denver Broncos vs. buffalo bills

Buffalo and Denver have 47 playoff appearances between them, but this is only the second time the teams have met in the postseason. The other event occurred 32 years ago, when the Bills won the 1991 AFC Championship Game, 10-7, on January 12, 1992.

The teams did not meet this season, and the last meeting had a somewhat surprising result as the Broncos, who would finish the year 8-9, won in Buffalo in Week 10 by a score of 24-22.

This is Buffalo’s sixth consecutive season in the playoffs. They opened at home on wild card weekend in the last four and won them all (over four different opponents).

On the other hand, Denver ended a streak of nine seasons without appearing in the playoffs in 2024. The other 13 teams in this postseason had been in the playoffs in the last four years, including Washington, which won the NFC East in 2020 with a record of 7-9. Denver’s last playoff game was Super Bowl 50 at the end of the 2015 season.

Eleven rookie quarterbacks won more than 10 games and led their team to the playoffs, with Bo Nix of the Broncos and Jayden Daniels of the Commanders being two of them. It’s the third time a pair of rookies have done it in the same season: Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson in 2012 and Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan in 2008. None of the other nine reached the Super Bowl.

Of the 11, Nix threw the most touchdown passes with 29.

And few quarterbacks have been as hot as Nix. Only Joe Burrow (29) and Lamar Jackson (26) have thrown more than 24 touchdown passes from Nix in the last 10 games. Josh Allen, by comparison, has 16 touchdown passes in that span.

Buffalo’s Josh Allen, along with Lamar Jackson, has become the favorite for the 2024 NFL MVP award. If he wins, it would be something of a validation award for his career, as he didn’t throw for 4,000 yards for the first time since 2020. He had also surpassed his 2024 total of 28 touchdown passes in each of his previous four seasons. The big improvement for Allen has been his career-low six interceptions, which have increased his passer rating to 101.4 after averaging 93.6 over the previous three seasons.

A curious fact about Allen is that, although known for his crazy plays and his relative propensity for interceptions, he has not thrown a pick-6 in the regular season or postseason since Week 1 of 2019.

MYERS ANALYSIS: “The vibe is different than Jim Harbaugh-Justin Herbert when Sean Payton coaches a quarterback. Watch for Payton to show more of a teacher-student interaction with Bo Nix, his hand-picked quarterback. Sean encourages him, sure, but the cameras will show that he doesn’t hide his frustration or anger on the sideline when his guy doesn’t do what the coach expects him to do.”

Chris Myers is an Emmy Award-winning FOX Sports broadcaster, reporter and studio host. Follow him on Twitter @The_ChrisMyers.