NFL Playoff Report: Epic matchups await in AFC and NFC divisional rounds

Editor’s note: Throughout the NFL playoffs, Chris Myers and his research team analyze upcoming matchups while providing news, notes and details to access the information an NFL broadcaster uses to prepare for call a game.

A LOOK AT AFC MATCHUPS

(4) Houston Texans at (1) Kansas City Chiefs – Saturday, 4:30 pm ET (ESPN/ABC)

The Texans have played 13 postseason games since 2011, only six teams have more (the Eagles will also play their 14th game in that span this weekend). Would you be surprised if the teams with the fewest postseason games played include the Steelers, Bills, Rams and their upstate rivals, the Cowboys?

After beating the Chargers, the Texans have six postseason wins since 2011; only eight teams have more. The Bills, Bengals and Buccaneers also have six.

Under DeMeco Ryans, the Texans have 22 total wins (regular season and postseason) since the start of 2023; only five teams, led by the Chiefs with 30, have more.

No matter what happens this postseason, the Chiefs have further positioned themselves as the “D” word of our time with a 15-win season. This is the 10th consecutive season in which Kansas City has reached double figures in regular season wins. In each of the last six, they have at least reached the conference championship game. With a win against the Texans, they will be one shy of the NFL record of eight consecutive conference championship game appearances set by the Patriots between 2011 and 2018 (the year Kansas City’s current streak began).

Over the last 10 years, the Chiefs have won 139 games (regular season and postseason). With a win on Saturday, that would be 14 per year for a decade, easily eclipsing the next team in line, the Bills, who currently have 107.

The Chiefs have become 8.5-point favorites over a division champion, a number they have only covered four times in 17 regular-season games. It’s almost exactly the margin by which they beat the Texans, 27-19, on Christmas Day.

It should be said that in the history of the NFL, 37 teams have won 14 or more games. Only one, the 2024 Chiefs at +59, failed to achieve a positive +100 point differential. This year’s team is either very lucky or very good at clinching.

CHRIS MYERS ANALYSIS: “Over the last decade, the Chiefs have evolved from a team that beat you with one of the best offenses in the game to a team that wins close games in groups with exceptional defense and key scoring. This Chiefs year they have played 11 one-score games and they won them all Mahomes and the Chiefs are like pizza… even when it’s bad, it’s still good.

“The Texans will fight hard and could surprise with strong running and great play from QB CJ Stroud, but how can you not expect Kansas City to come out victorious in the end? Andy Reid, a Hall of Fame coach, always has the “Los Chiefs are ready to play and won’t look past Houston. The AFC Championship Game should be in Kansas City for the sixth time in the last seven years.”

(3) Baltimore Ravens at (2) Buffalo Bills – Sunday, 6:30 pm ET (CBS)

This is the sixth consecutive season Buffalo has been to the postseason and Baltimore has joined the Bills in five of them. But the teams have only met once in that span: Buffalo’s 17-3 home win in the 2020 divisional round, a game in which Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson left the game with a concussion. It is the only time Sean McDermott’s Bills have advanced to the AFC Championship Game.

With his big game last week, Ravens running back Derrick Henry has raised his run total for the extended season (regular and postseason) to a career-high 2,107. He had 2,067 in 2020 for the Titans. It’s the ninth-best extended-season total of all time, and with 106 yards on Sunday, he’ll be third behind just two seasons of Terrell Davis. Still, not the best total this season, the Eagles’ Saquon Barkley now has 2,124.

CHRIS MYERS ANALYSIS: “This is the big fight of the weekend, a true heavyweight fight between the two leading contenders for the NFL MVP award, Lamar Jackson of the Ravens and Josh Allen of the Bills. Each is a brilliant running back and passer who elevates his offensive teammates. Both teams have elite running backs in Derrick Henry and James Cook, with capable, but not otherworldly, receivers.

“While both teams defended well last week, neither team’s defense has been dominant. The Bills are average against both the run and the pass, while Baltimore has blocked the run and allowed the third-most passing yards. This game should end both teams at least in the 20s, and maybe beyond.

“Rightly or wrongly, this will be a career-defining game for both quarterbacks. The votes for MVP have already been counted, but I believe the winner of this game will be considered the true MVP, especially if he plays brilliant way.

“The Ravens might be a slightly better team, but Buffalo has the elements and the crowd. The Bills are 6-2 at home in the postseason under Sean McDermott, but John Harbaugh has won eight postseason road games in his time with the Ravens. At home, Josh Allen may be more like the MVP.”

AND IN THE NFC…

(6) Washington Commanders at (1) Detroit Lions – Saturday, 8 pm ET (FOX)

Last year, the Lions ended an 0-9 postseason streak dating back to the 1991-92 playoffs with wins over the Buccaneers and Rams.

Last week, Washington ended an 0-5 playoff streak dating back to January 2006 with its victory over the Buccaneers.

The Lions are looking to return to the NFC Championship Game after losing last year to the 49ers. Detroit’s only previous appearance in the NFCCG was in 1991. The Lions are the only NFC team to never win an NFC Championship Game or appear in a Super Bowl. Between 1935 and 1957, the Lions won four NFL championship games.

Washington has appeared in the NFC Championship Game six times, but not since 1992. Every other NFC team has appeared more recently (the next longest drought is the Cowboys, who were last in contention for the NFC title in 1995).

The winning drive against Tampa Bay last week marked the fifth winning drive of the extended season for rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. The Commanders had a sixth GWD from Marcus Mariota in Week 18 in Dallas.

The Lions begin the postseason with a streak of 15 straight games with 20+ points. They tied the NFL record with six games in which they scored more than 40 points. If they do it again, they would tie the 1994 49ers and the 2011 Saints for the record of seven for an extended season.

Jared Goff has now joined Tom Brady and Peyton Manning as the only quarterbacks to lead two different franchises with seasons of 13 or more wins. He is the sixth to throw more than 100 touchdown passes for multiple franchises.

CHRIS MYERS ANALYSIS: “Having spent time with Jayden Daniels this season calling Commanders games, we saw early on that he was already ahead of things and has grown even more. He lives for the pressure point and I think he will thrive even as the Moments Get Bigger on the NFL Playoff Stage If you’re waiting for the rookie to break out… you’ll just have to keep waiting.

“But how can you not be impressed with Jared Goff’s growth in his time with the Lions? He’s played in a lot of big games and usually turns in outstanding performances. And he might have even more weapons to work with than Daniels.

“Teams have seen the success that both Coach Dans have brought to downtrodden franchises. First, Dan Campbell of the Lions and now Dan Quinn of the Commanders have almost instantly used excellent communication skills to take charge of rotten situations and establish foundations They both believe in controlling the ball with innovative offenses and bold strategies, especially on fourth down.

“I really think the Commanders have a great chance if they can slow down the game with ball control and stay within striking distance. They weren’t expected to be here, they have a great record in crunch time and they are really playing with the money “The Lions have overcome almost every challenge for two years and I don’t think they will ultimately disappoint their home fans.”

(4) Los Angeles Rams at (2) Philadelphia Eagles – Sunday, 3 pm ET (NBC)

The Rams (27) and Eagles (26) rank sixth and seventh, respectively, among NFL teams in number of postseason wins. At 26-26, the Eagles are exactly .500 in postseason play throughout their history, while the Rams are now 27-28 (.491).

The Rams’ best round is the divisionals with a record of 11-6. They are 2-1 under Sean McVay in the divisionals, won the NFC Championship Game and advanced to the Super Bowl after their two previous wins.

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is the active leader with 52 winning drives in the regular season and postseason, including five this season.

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has compiled an impressive total of 55 rushing touchdowns in 66 games as a starting quarterback. Of them, 33 have covered just one yard, as well as two of their five touchdowns in the postseason.

On November 24, Eagles running back Saquon Barkley had 302 yards from scrimmage (255 rushing, 47 receiving) in Philadelphia’s 37-20 victory over the Rams. It’s the highest total of the season and the 10th best of all time. There has never been a 300-yard game in yards from scrimmage in an NFL postseason game (Keith Lincoln of the Chargers had 329 in the 1963 AFC Championship Game). The postseason record for a running back is 244 yards from scrimmage, set by the Rams’ Eric Dickerson in 1985.

When an NFL running back has more than 200 yards from scrimmage in a playoff game, his teams are 16-1.

CHRIS MYERS ANALYSIS: “The NFC North has been the best division in football this year, but both teams dismantled two of their representatives last week. With Saquon Barkley cooking behind their big line, the Eagles didn’t have to go through much to beat Green Bay. They have the ability to pass, and they may have to show it this week against the much-improved Rams defense.

“The Eagles won the regular season game between these teams in late November while Barkley was going crazy. The Rams have won all six games they have tried to win since then. The defense has improved, but has it improved enough to contain Barkley? If so, I mean, Matthew Stafford has a world of experience and a good cast of weapons. If there is a surprise this weekend… this could be the game that the strategic adjustments between Sean McVay and will provide. the Rams’ offense against Vic Fangio and the Eagles defense. An entertaining game within the game.”

Chris Myers is an Emmy Award-winning FOX Sports broadcaster, reporter and studio host. Follow him on Twitter @The_ChrisMyers.