Wild Card 2024 Weekend Action Report: ‘We’re seeing one-way traffic at Eagles’

The NFL Wild Card odds feature six matchups of varying intrigue. One that is certainly interesting is Saturday night’s clash between division rivals.

For the third time this season, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens are coming together. But this time, the point difference is at its peak, even reaching double digits.

“Ten is a big number, especially for a division rival,” said Caesars Sports chief operating officer Joey Feazel. “But the Steelers’ slide in recent weeks will be fresh in bettors’ minds.”

Astute betmakers and bettors offer their thoughts on Steelers vs. Ravens and the rest of the matchups, as we dive into NFL wild card weekend betting.

Saturday Night Showdown

Baltimore is the third seed in the AFC, after finishing the regular season 12-5 (SU) and 10-6-1 against the spread (ATS). The Ravens are also on a hot streak, winning and covering the point spread in their last four games.

That includes a Week 16 matchup in which Lamar Jackson & Co. doubled Pittsburgh 34-17 as a 7.5-point home favorite.

On the other hand, the Steelers (10-7 SU/11-6 ATS) lost their last four games and finished 1-3 ATS. That’s why Pittsburgh is on the road this week as the sixth seed, instead of staying as AFC North champions and hosting a playoff game.

It’s also why Caesars opened the Ravens as 9.5-point favorites and spent the first half of this week at -10, before returning to -9.5 on Wednesday afternoon. But it’s not all action in Baltimore just yet.

“Right now, we’re pretty balanced in this game, surprisingly,” Feazel said, although he noted that he doesn’t expect that to be the case come Saturday at 8 p.m. ET. “I’m sure we’ll need the Steelers on game day.”

The NFL moves on FOX

FOX has a matchup that bettors and bettors are eagerly anticipating: the Green Bay Packers against the Philadelphia Eagles, at 4:30 p.m. ET on Sunday.

The Eagles (14-3 SU/11-6 ATS) are the second seed in the NFC. The Packers (11-6 SU/9-8 ATS) are the seventh seed and earn the final NFC playoff spot. Green Bay is also a bit run down. Quarterback Jordan Love (elbow) is expected to play, but wide receiver Christian Watson is out after tearing his right ACL in last week’s 24-22 loss to Chicago.

Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts has missed the last two games while in concussion protocol. But he practiced on Wednesday and should be able to do so on Sunday.

Caesars Sports opened the Eagles -4 on Sunday night and was betting up to -5.5 on Monday morning. The line has since stabilized at Philadelphia -4.5, but the stock is tilted.

“We’re seeing one-way traffic here at the Eagles. There’s a lot of Eagles supporters here,” Feazel said. “Unlike last year, the Eagles have only gotten better week after week. And they’re getting a new Saquon Barkley.”

Barkley was rested in Week 18 after accumulating 2,005 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns.

And to Feazel’s point about improving: Last year, Philadelphia lost five of its final six regular-season games and then was eliminated by Tampa Bay on wild-card weekend. This year, the Eagles enter the playoffs on a 12-1 SU streak, going 9-4 ATS over that stretch.

NFL Sharp Side

Professional bettor Randy McKay has a couple playoff bets in his pocket. The first is a two-team six-point spread, matching the Buffalo Bills -2.5 against the Denver Broncos with the Los Angeles Rams +7.5 against the Minnesota Vikings.

For clarity: A teaser is very similar to a parlay, but with shorter odds and smaller payouts due to tight point spreads. In this case, McKay’s advance subtracts 6 points from the Bills’ margin and adds 6 points from the Rams’ margin.

“I like facing rookie quarterbacks, especially in a road playoff start,” McKay said, referring to Broncos starter Bo Nix. “Denver’s defense hasn’t been able to step up against better offenses. The Bills’ defense relies on turnovers, and they’ll get a couple here. It’ll be hard for Denver to keep up.”

Despite being 14-3 SU (11-5-1 ATS), Minnesota is the fifth seed in the NFC, after losing 31-9 at Detroit in Week 18.

“This is a very difficult situation for the Vikings, since they come from the [big] game for the No. 1 seed against Detroit,” McKay said. “I still see a close game. “These two teams played earlier this year in a very close game.”

In Week 8, the Rams led the visiting Vikings 21-20 early in the fourth quarter. Los Angeles added a touchdown and a safety to win 30-20.

McKay also likes Pittsburgh covering its 10-point deficit in Baltimore.

“It’s the third meeting this year. Pittsburgh won the first, Baltimore won the second,” McKay said. “This line is inflated by how each team has played recently. Baltimore’s top wide receiver, Zay Flowers (knee), is questionable. And I still don’t trust Baltimore’s defense to cover a double-digit spread.”

Superchargers

Feazel believes the Los Angeles Chargers are in an enviable position as the fifth seed. That means a road trip against a No. 4 Houston Texans team that struggled at multiple junctures this season.

“The Chargers passed the Steelers for the No. 5 seed and everyone wants to be in this matchup,” Feazel said.

Los Angeles (11-6 SU/12-5 ATS) opened as a 3-point favorite and remains there until Wednesday night for the first Wild Card game, at 4:30 pm ET on Saturday. Houston (10-7 SU/11-6 ATS) had a midseason stretch in which it lost three of four, and the Texans lost at Kansas City and at home to Baltimore in Weeks 16 and 17, respectively.

There is no shame in losing to KC or Baltimore. But the Ravens’ loss was devastating, with Houston falling 31-2.

“So far we’re seeing mostly Chargers action. It’s pretty one-sided, but the market doesn’t want to move from that 3,” Feazel said.

The rest of the story

Feazel also provided insight into the other three matchups, starting with Sunday’s 1 pm ET contest between the No. 7 Broncos and No. 2 Bills. Buffalo (13-4 SU/10-7 ATS) opened as a home favorite by 9 points and has dropped one step to -8.5.

“As far as action goes, we’re looking at that half of the Super Bowl, where bettors are going 8.5/9 on the Bills or playing the Broncos on the money line,” Feazel said.

The Broncos (10-7 SU/12-5 ATS) are +360 on the moneyline, meaning a $100 bet would win $360 ($460 total payout) in the unlikely event of an upset.

The other two matchups: the Washington Commanders (12-5 SU/10-6-1 ATS) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7 SU and ATS); and the Minnesota Vikings (14-3 SU/11-5-1 ATS) against the Los Angeles Rams (10-7 SU/9-8 ATS). Feazel’s thoughts on those contests:

• Commanders against Buccaneers: Caesars opened the Bucs as 3.5-point home favorites and quickly dropped to -3. That’s where the line remains for Sunday’s 8 p.m. ET kickoff. “It’s a two-way action on the spread, but there’s more decision on the total. Jayden Daniels has an explosive offense and a not-so-good defense. So instead of taking a side, bettors are taking the Over.” The total of 50 is the highest of the six wild card games.
• Vikings vs. Rams: The Vikes opened -2 ​​and briefly hit -2.5 on Monday, but the spread then fell as low as the pick’em on Wednesday night. It is now Minnesota -1. “We’re seeing more money from the Rams. The Vikings embarrassed themselves in Detroit, and there’s kind of a feeling of not being sure if Sam Darnold can handle this job.”

Keep an eye out for the Vikings-Rams game, currently scheduled for Monday at 8 pm ET. It could be moving due to the massive wildfires in the Los Angeles area. Discussions were underway Wednesday about possibly moving the game to the Arizona Cardinals’ stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

I like big bets and I can’t lie

The high rollers will apparently keep their powder dry until a little later this week. No major bets have yet been reported on NFL Wild Card Weekend odds. But rest assured, they are coming.

Meanwhile, there’s an interesting bet betting on a big return for Detroit Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. You may remember that Hutchinson broke his left leg during Detroit’s 47-9 Week 6 blowout of Dallas.

That was on October 13 and the recovery time is projected to be between four and six months. Hutchinson would apparently turn four months old on Super Bowl Sunday, February 9.

It’s not a long shot that No. 1 seed Detroit makes the Super Bowl. After all, the Lions are +290 favorites at Caesars to win the championship. But it’s still a long shot that Hutchinson returns.

However, if he does, and he looks anything like he did in the first five games of the season, when he racked up seven sacks, then this bet could become a lot more intriguing: $500 on Hutchinson +15000 (150/1) for win the Super Bowl MVP.

If Hutchinson comes back and destroys it in the Superdome, the Caesars customer will make a profit of $75,000. It’s a comeback story worth following and supporting.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting field. He lives in Las Vegas, where he likes to play golf in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

Want great stories delivered straight to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports accountAnd follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter every day!