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The four Spanish teams are currently in different situations in the Champions League, with three games left until the end of the league phase of the competition. The top eight will automatically qualify for the round of 16, while the teams ranked 9th to 24th will play in the play-off round. The bottom 12 will be out of the competition, with no chance of relegation to the Europa League.
Without a doubt, the most surprising of the four teams is Real Madrid’s precarious position in 24th place, as they face a tough trip to Atalanta in Bergamo. Currently with six points, Diario AS says projections predict that a total of 8 points will give them a 21% chance of qualifying, and 9 points will give them a 76% chance of passing. Only four points in their last three games (Salzburg at home and Brest away after Atalanta) will allow them to pass in 98% of cases.
How many points will it take to finish in the top 24 of the Champions League?
We have simulated the UCL league stage 10,000 times and in the majority of simulations (55%) the 24th ranked team finished with 9 points.
8 points could also be enough (21%), but 7 is already very unlikely. pic.twitter.com/7PvOHPZyuR
— Football meets data (@fmeetsdata) August 24, 2024
Atlético de Madrid currently has 9 points, which means that they are almost qualified and will therefore seek to be among the top eight. Projections say that between 15 and 17 points will probably be enough, meaning Atlético would need at least a couple of wins against Slovan Bratislava, RB Salzburg and Bayer Leverkusen. Barcelona could even go to the round of 16 with just three more points against Borussia Dortmund, Benfica and Atalanta; They currently have 12 points.
🔹 11 points offer almost a certainty for the Top 24 in the UCL.
5⃣ teams are already there
1⃣1⃣ more teams may be there next week🔸 17 points offer almost certainty for the Top 8
Liverpool is the only team that can get there after matchday six. pic.twitter.com/Q7pPUWYGwl
— Football meets data (@fmeetsdata) December 5, 2024
Girona is in the least attractive situation. Their debut in the Champions League so far has yielded only 3 points against Slovan Bratislava. In all likelihood they would need two heroic wins or five points in the tough remaining fixture against Liverpool, AC Milan and Arsenal.
