Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson? Debate on MVP favorites before Ravens-Bills

The careers of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are inextricably linked. Both selected in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft, the two quarterbacks came to the NFL facing serious, if very different, questions about their career prospects. Seven years later, they are neck and neck in the league’s quarterback pecking order. And the next chapter in their playoff journeys will be against each other.

So who will emerge victorious?

Allen’s Bills host Jackson’s Ravens in an AFC divisional round matchup on Sunday night, the biggest matchup of the weekend. Buffalo and Baltimore quickly surpassed the wild card, beating Denver and Pittsburgh by double digits, respectively.

Allen and Jackson, the MVP favorites, are both incidentally aiming for their second appearance in the AFC championship game. In their only previous postseason meeting, in the 2020 divisional round, Allen and Buffalo prevailed.

FOX Sports writers Ben Arthur and Henry McKenna sat down to compare and contrast the careers of both superstar quarterbacks through the lens of this season, their upcoming fight and their respective legacies.

Moderator: Henry, you had a story earlier this week. examining MVP cases of both QBs. It was really eye-opening, except for the part where you didn’t pick a winner. We are not going to let you off the hook here. Who would get your vote?

McKenna: Well, shoot. In fact, I avoided choosing an MVP, because I would choose someone and regret not voting for the other. I would go with Josh Allen. By a hair.

I have seen all the numbers. Lamar Jackson has more touchdowns, higher expected points added (EPA), and fewer interceptions. Lamar has been more valuable on the stat sheet.

But once you get into the film, there’s a lot to love about Allen’s season. It’s not just about the notable pitches or runs. It’s how he consistently dragged a roster full of disappointing receivers to the No. 2 spot in the AFC while beating the king, Patrick Mahomes.

Arthur: I understand Josh Allen’s argument, and he’s certainly had some all-time games and moments this season. But I think we should all be wary of potential fatigue when it comes to Lamar Jackson winning a potential third MVP.

Let’s look at the facts: He’s been significantly better than last year, when he won his second league MVP. He had a 41-4 touchdown pass to interception ratio, which is the highest for a quarterback in a season with 30+ touchdown passes in NFL history. He also surpassed Michael Vick for most rushing yards by a quarterback. Not only is Jackson the gold standard when it comes to being a dual-threat quarterback, but he also somehow takes significant steps forward each season.

My vote (if I had one) would be for Jackson.

McKenna: Look, there’s an interesting question there. Is Lamar the gold standard for dual-threat quarterback? I’m really not sure. Because it’s safe to say that Allen is just as dangerous, and maybe even more dangerous as a running back.

I mentioned the Bills’ win over the Chiefs. How did Allen close the door on Kansas City? With a 26-yard run on a fourth-down conversion. Amazing clutch. And he did it with his legs.

It’s a bash brother. He throws his 250 pounds in a way that will make defenders hesitate to hit him in the fourth quarter. And although the Bills have clearly asked him to reduce his carry total (which has reduced his yardage total), he still scores touchdowns. He had 12 rushing touchdowns this year (and has 27 over the last two regular seasons).

Arthur: When I say gold standard, I mean raw statistics. But I think we can agree that both guys are PHENOMENAL as dual-threat quarterbacks. It really comes down to the style you prefer.

Allen (as you mentioned, Henry), is more of a bully. Jackson, who weighs 205 pounds, is more elusive and crafty. I’m more in favor of the latter (fewer quarterback hits), but I think you can argue that Allen’s style instills more fear in the defense and probably galvanizes an offense to a greater degree.

There really isn’t a wrong answer between them this season, as both quarterbacks appear to be at their peak. But which of them do you think ultimately has a higher ceiling?

Arthur: I would have to go with Jackson.

I think his dual-threat style is more sustainable over time (Jackson’s craftiness tends to generate fewer hits) and his growth as a passer has been significant in recent years with Todd Monken calling plays. His touchdown passes have increased four years in a row. His yards per attempt have increased five straight years. It feels like Jackson hasn’t reached his peak, even if it’s crazy to say so.

McKenna: Ben, I’m with you there. We haven’t seen a guy like Allen since Cam Newton. And my goodness, Newton’s production declined rapidly. He played only 11 seasons and his production was elite for a fraction of that.

I’m not saying Allen’s career is headed exactly there. But I think there is a legitimate concern about burnout. It’s a little hard to imagine these guys are still ascending, but you’re right, there’s more potential to tap into with Lamar.

Well, now that the Bills are about to host the Ravens, which QB do you expect to play best this weekend?

McKenna: Well, it will once again be in the eye of the beholder.

I think the Bills will win because of Allen’s game management. He may not put up the most yards or even the most touchdowns. But you will get first downs and touchdowns in the most crucial moments of the game. Jackson will have a better stat line. He could even play better. But the Bills will head to the AFC title game.

Arthur: I’m going to say that Jackson plays better. and The Ravens win.

I’m sure you know the narrative about him very well; who is only a regular season player, considering his 3-4 playoff record. I think the loss in the AFC Championship last season should also be a motivator. I imagine he’ll put a lot of pressure on himself in this scenario while competing against a quarterback of Josh Allen’s caliber, and he’ll get to have a backfield partner like Derrick Henry by his side.

Which QB do you trust the most with the game on the line?

Arthur: Allen is the easy answer for me. The Bills have consistently fallen short in the playoffs over the past few years, but it hasn’t been because of Allen’s inability to meet the moment. We have seen the epic duels he has had with Mahomes, for example.

Jackson, meanwhile, simply hasn’t played at his level in the postseason. I think there’s a good chance that will change this year with more help, but he doesn’t have the resume to prove it yet.

McKenna: I’m with you, Ben. I like the way Allen has performed in crunch time this year. I know it’s convenient for me to show statistics when I largely disregarded them before. But I’m going to do it anyway.

In third and fourth falls this year, Allen has a total EPA of 42.7 with .28 EPA per fall. In the same situations, Lamar’s total EPA is 30.1 with 0.21 EPA per recoil.

If his first-team All-Pro selection is any indication, Jackson is on pace to win his third MVP award. But neither has won a Super Bowl, of course. Who do you predict will be considered the best quarterback when it’s all said and done?

McKenna: It’s really difficult. I’ve been stubborn about Allen’s chances of winning it all this year. He’s had a little more success against Mahomes. And if any of these quarterbacks want to build “greatness,” they’ll have to do it with a Super Bowl. (Or many.)

But I can’t stop talking about the length of each quarterback’s career. About Lamar’s advantages. It also helps that John Harbaugh has won a Super Bowl and could even postpone his retirement until Lamar is done. That means something. (Compare that to Allen and coach Sean McDermott, who has no Super Bowls to his name and could one day lose his job if he can’t deliver.)

I’ll take Lamar.

Arthur: I’m going to say Jackson too.

He already has three first-team All-Pro selections and is expected to get his third MVP as well. Allen has neither and, as we’ve noted, Jackson appears to have more long-term upside. I think Allen will have to substantially surpass Jackson in the ring count to be considered “better” at the end of their careers, and it’s hard to imagine that given Mahomes’ presence in the AFC.

Ben Arthur is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat the writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) before moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.

Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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