Is Roki Sasaki a lock for the Dodgers? The latest on the free agency of the Japanese phenomenon

DALLAS – The Roki Sasaki giveaway has begun.

The top international free agent was officially released this week, opening a 45-day window for teams to make their pitches to the 23-year-old flamethrower from Japan.

Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe, speaking from Hilton Anatole at MLB’s winter meetings, said the process will be “open.” Wolfe hopes to meet with Sasaki in the coming days and then map out a time to meet with teams, likely starting next week. Those meetings will take place in a central location first before Sasaki potentially begins visiting “some isolated locations” in a second round of meetings.

The 2024 international signing period ends on December 15. Sasaki is expected to sign during the 2025 international signing period, which begins January 15. Each team will have somewhere between $5-8 million to work with with reset bonuses.

“Teams have already started sending out presentations, both video and PowerPoint, pdf forms, that kind of thing,” Wolfe said, estimating he’s seen three or four so far. “But we didn’t give the teams a hard deadline to submit that information because we want them to be able to spend the time to get it right.”

For a quick reviewThis won’t be like Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s situation a year ago when he signed for 12 years and $325 million, earning the largest contract for a pitcher.

Sasaki could have ordered something similar if he were available on the open market, but because he is not yet 25 years old, he is subject to international amateur free agent restrictions. That means he can only sign a minor league deal from a team’s international bonus pool. He is widely considered to be one of the best pitchers available, and will come at a fraction of the cost of most free agents, opening the door for every team to make his pitch. Wolfe estimates that “at least half the league” has scouted Sasaki in Japan this year.

Here’s some of what Wolfe had to say about how the process will work, what we know about Sasaki, and what we can expect in the next 45 days.

Why is Sasaki signing now instead of waiting until he’s 25 and can make significantly more money?

It’s a question that’s difficult for Wolfe to answer.

“Part of that is Japanese culture, part of that is just Roki Sasaki,” Wolfe said. “There are no absolutes in baseball, and through Roki’s eyes, there are no absolutes in life.”

Wolfe said the tragedies Sasaki has dealt with — when he was 9, Sasaki lost his father and grandparents in the tsunami that resulted from the devastating 2011 earthquake — have shaped his outlook on life. He doesn’t take anything for granted.

“It’s not an absolute lock, as some people in baseball have assumed, that two years from now you’ll have a Yamamoto contract,” Wolfe continued. “Baseball just doesn’t work that way. If you look at the epidemic of injuries that pitchers suffer here, they have the same potential problems. He could have Tommy John surgery. He’s had two shoulder injuries. He’s had oblique injuries. Don’t go as they want.”

Additionally, Sasaki’s experience pitching in the World Baseball Classic intensified his desire to make the jump.

“It’s always been his dream to come to the big leagues since he was in high school,” Wolfe said. “He grew up idolizing players like Yu Darvish and [Masahiro] Tanaka and [Daisuke] Matsuzaka. This is something he always wanted to do, and when he went to WBC and was around some of these big league players, it really rubbed off on him that he made sure that ‘this is what I want to do as soon as possible,’ and he just it solidified their decision-making process.”

Wolfe said Sasaki doesn’t know much about individual teams and cities yet. He has encouraged Sasaki to enter the process with an open mind and categorically denied any speculation that a handshake deal has already been made, even though the Dodgers, who employ Sasaki’s WBC teammates, Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani are the favorites.

“There were some accusations, accusations, all of them false, about predetermined agreements, things like that,” Wolfe said. “However, MLB rightly wanted to make sure this was a fair, level playing field for everyone. So, they did their due diligence and interviewed numerous parties in advance to make sure that was the case. And they wanted to make it clear that Roki would probably, although he would have the opportunity to enter in ’24, give the best opportunity to get the best deal for himself and Chiba, and that Chiba would also have that opportunity Post at this time to be able to enter the ’25 group. when teams will have a lot more bonus money substantial international.”

Does that mean teams with more money from the international bonus pool have an advantage?

“Given the gap in bonus pool amounts is so insignificant, my advice to him is, ‘Don’t make a decision based on that,'” Wolfe said, “because the long-term arc of your career is where you are. I’m going to earn your money.

So what is most important to Sasaki?

Wolfe still has an idea of ​​that.

He has known Sasaki “for a little over two years” and said that “it’s been a little difficult to really determine what his decision-making process would be for picking a team because his focus has predominantly been on whether or not he’s going to be able to.” post “.

Now, that obstacle is out of the way.

The Chiba Lotte Marines, Sasaki’s NPB team, announced in November that they would begin the posting process, to the surprise of many, considering that the posting fee they will receive will be significantly less than what they would have received if they had waited until Sasaki was 25 – But Wolfe didn’t know until a few days ago when it would officially happen.

Wolfe said Sasaki has asked for “a wide range of information” and “suggest information about different teams and regions that we think could be beneficial to him.”

“The best I can say is he’s paid attention to how teams have done, as far as overall success both this year and in years past,” Wolfe said. “He watches a lot of Major League baseball. He’s paid attention to what his WBC teammates have done. He’s talked to a lot of players, foreign players, who have been on his team with Chiba Lotte. He’s asked a lot of questions about the weather, about the comfort, about the development of the launch.

Does that mean you’d be more open to joining a team with Japanese players?

With the activities of Kodai Senga and Yamamoto, many teams asked Wolfe if having Japanese players already on their team would be a hindrance or attraction for his Japanese clients.

“And it’s different for every player,” Wolfe said. “Every player is unique in how they feel about it, and I think it’s also important in the player who is already on the team, how much do they reach out to other Japanese players? How are they perceived by this particular Japanese player? It just varies from player to player.”

So is it more of an attraction for Sasaki?

“It could be, having an older player to help show him the ropes,” Wolfe said. “But anyone who knows Roki Sasaki, this is one of the most driven and intense players I’ve ever met and been around, and I wouldn’t say I would necessarily need him to succeed.”

Do West Coast teams have an advantage?

“He’s never mentioned that as a problem,” Wolfe said. “When we provide information to our players, our Japanese players, long before they come here, one of the things we provide is the direct flights from Japan and the amount of time it takes for family to come visit you. I. Think about Five or 10 years ago it was something that maybe weighed a little more, but now you can fly directly from Japan to most major cities in the United States, it’s not a big deal anymore.”

When asked how the Padres would fit, considering Sasaki’s admiration for Darvish, Wolfe said he assumed “that would be a team I would seriously consider.”

Wolfe added that he has not spoken to Sasaki about his relationship with Ohtani.

Do they have the opportunity for smaller or mid-market teams?

“Yes, absolutely,” Wolfe said. “I think there’s an argument to be made that a small or mid-market team might be more beneficial to him as a soft landing coming from Japan, given what he’s been through and not having a pleasant experience with the media. … I’m not saying that “It may be, but I don’t know how he’s going to see it, it might be beneficial for him to be in a smaller market. I haven’t had a chance to really sit down and discuss it with him in great detail.”

Wait, what’s the situation with the media in Japan?

“The media in Japan has been very hard on him, and he hasn’t had a very good time,” Wolfe said. “My personal opinion is that it’s been a bit unfair, and it’s affected him mentally a bit.”

Wolfe later elaborated on those themes: “There has been a lot of negativity in the media directed at him because he has expressed interest in playing for MLB at such a young age. That is considered in Japan to be very disrespectful and swimming upstream. There have been a lot of things… a lot of people got on board creating some false rumors about him and his family.

Would all that rule out a place like New York?

“He hasn’t said anything negative about any particular city, and he hasn’t really said anything too positive about it,” Wolfe said. “We haven’t had any detailed discussions about particular cities yet. But I think he can handle it, just based on what I’ve seen.”

When will Sasaki make his choice?

While the signing won’t take place until at least January 15, it’s possible Sasaki will make his decision before then.

“The incentive to sign as soon as possible is to get the visa process going so it arrives in time for spring training,” Wolfe said. “So the sooner we make a decision, the better. Nobody would want him to show up late in spring training.”

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for Fox Sports. He previously covered the Los Angeles Dodgers, Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU graduate, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @Ownankavner.

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