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As the cricket world turns its eyes towards the final matches of the ongoing tournament Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) 2023-25Indian cricket team qualification for the 2025 World Test Championship (WTC) final before the remains of Lord on the knife’s edge. Notably, India were already facing the heat following their disappointing series loss at home against New Zealandwhere they were whitewashed in a 3-Test match series. Furthermore, they have not surpassed Australia in the BGT since after three tests and the fourth still in progress, the score reads 1-1.
Further, South Africawho were already at the top of the WTC standings after their brilliance against Sri Lankahave secured their place in the championship final after a thrilling victory over Pakistan in the Boxing Day test at Centurion. This makes the battle for the WTC final even more difficult for both India and Australia. In that sense, let’s analyze the scenarios that could lead India to confrontation.
Melbourne result will play crucial role
If the Boxing Day Test between Australia and India at Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) ends in a draw, India’s journey to the WTC final will not be easy. This result would mean that the stakes for the upcoming New Year’s Test at the Sydney Cricket Ground (SCG) would skyrocket, making it a do-or-die encounter for Rohit Sharma’s unit.
Will Sydney become a must-win game?
The SCG Test becomes a must-win for India in the scenario where the MCG Test ends in a stalemate. A win in Sydney would keep India’s hopes alive, but it would still not be enough to guarantee their place in the final; external results would come into play.
Sri Lanka’s role
For India to qualify without winning the series against Australia, they would need help from Sri Lanka. If the Border-Gavaskar Trophy series concludes with a score of 1-1, India would need Sri Lanka to beat Australia in at least one of their next two-match series. However, historical data suggests that results in Galle, where these matches are scheduled, do not typically end in draws, making a 1-0 Sri Lanka series win a challenging but not impossible scenario.
Also READ: AUS vs IND: Jasprit Bumrah registers unique record after surpassing 200-wicket milestone in MCG Test
Final scenario
If India manages to secure a win in Sydney after a draw in Melbourne, and if Australia fails to sweep Sri Lanka, India could still reach the final at Lord’s. Australia’s series with Sri Lanka is crucial; If Australia wins both matches, India’s chances of qualifying would collapse. However, any other result – be it a win, draw or loss for Australia in that series – could open the door for India, assuming they have earned the necessary points in their series.
South Africa secured its place in the WTC final
To add to the intrigue, South Africa have already confirmed their place in the WTC final, making them the first team to secure their place in the prestigious event at Lord’s. Their consistent performance throughout the cycle has ensured that they will be one of the contenders vying for the championship title, setting the stage for an exciting clash with whoever emerges as their final opponent.
