Which QB do you trust in the playoffs? Classification of the 14 starters

The draft day cliché talks about trusting the caller.

The quarterback is the most important position in the NFL for several reasons. He’s the face of the franchise, the most important player on the field and the guy you trust to deliver in the big moments.

Trust. That’s the key word for this particular piece. Today, there are a half-dozen objective, numerical ways to evaluate a quarterback. Salary, statistics, recognitions. They are all quite simple and empirical. Trust is harder: a much vaguer and more subjective metric.

But with a playoff game, or even a Super Bowl on the line, nothing could be more important. So, among the 14 quarterbacks in this year’s NFL playoffs, who do you trust the most?

Let’s discuss.

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

It doesn’t really seem like much more needs to be said than the resume: three Super Bowl championships, three Super Bowl MVPs, five fourth-quarter comebacks in the playoffs. Anyone who has another answer for who is the most reliable quarterback in the playoffs is simply trying to be different.

2. jose alen, buffalo bills

It’s heartbreaking to think what Allen’s legacy could be if he wasn’t playing in the same conference at the same time as Patrick Mahomes. He has posted a 100 passer rating in the postseason with 27 total touchdowns and just six turnovers. He’s been phenomenal, with the unfortunate caveat that he’s made one or two fewer plays than Mahomes in some classic games. Maybe this will be the year I flip the script.

3. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Make fun if you want. I realize that Jackson’s playoff record doesn’t measure up to his incredible regular season performances. I also know that Jackson is one of the best players in the league and narratives can change overnight. Peyton Manning started his postseason career 3-6, with four different performances before he finally broke through and helped the Colts win Super Bowl XLI.

Jackson hasn’t been at his best in the playoffs, but he hasn’t been an insurmountable nightmare either. There simply aren’t many quarterbacks I’d rather have right now than the league’s first 4,000-yard passer/800-yard rusher. With that kind of talent, I’m sure Jackson’s time is coming.

4. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

If we talk about trust, then a proven track record should carry a lot of weight. With a lot of names on this list, projections and guesswork come into play. But we’ve seen Stafford lead the Rams to four straight wins and a Super Bowl championship as the No. 4 seed, which, coincidentally, is once again where the Rams find themselves in the pack this year. Stafford takes risks, as evidenced by his eight turnovers in eight career playoff games. But when things go wrong, he’s as proven as anyone except Patrick Mahomes.

5. Jalen hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Some might have Hurts higher on this list because of his incredible performance in a Super Bowl LVII loss against the Chiefs. And that’s perfectly fine. Personally, I’d just like to see a little more. Hurts’ other two playoff wins, against the Giants and 49ers during that run in 2022, largely consisted of him staying away from overmatched opponents. And his 2021 and 2023 performances against Tampa Bay were forgettable at best. This weekend’s game against Green Bay offers a perfect test.

6. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

Goff is living proof of how cruel the postseason is, because he has appeared in nine playoff games, and I would say the only time he really played poorly was in the biggest game of all: Super Bowl LIII against the Patriots. That being said, my concern with Goff is that there is a pretty clear plan to his game. His relative lack of mobility doesn’t give him much room to improvise against top-tier defenses. He’s only been pressured on 33% of his dropbacks this season, but he’s thrown half of his interceptions in those circumstances. The Lions are good enough that it’s hard to get to Goff, but if you can, it could be problematic for him.

7. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

We all owe Jim Harbaugh a debt of gratitude for helping Herbert shine. From the moment he was drafted, Herbert’s shortcomings have had more to do with the structure around him than his own game. And now that the Chargers are finally starting to look like a competent organization, they’re reaping the benefits.

Herbert is one of 13 quarterbacks to attempt 500 passes this season, and he leads the pack with an absurdly low three interceptions. He and Josh Allen are the only qualified starters without a fourth-quarter pick this year. He has shown all season that he can be trusted. Now he just needs to keep it in the playoffs.

8. baker mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Hopefully, this was the year people started taking Mayfield seriously as a true franchise quarterback. His accomplishments this season speak for themselves, and he’s certainly played admirably both times he’s made the playoffs to date. That said, his 2.8% interception rate is the highest in the playoffs. He’s capable of leading the Bucs to postseason victories, but his production comes at a cost.

9. jordanian love, Green Bay Packers

Something has felt off recently with the Packers’ passing game. That’s not all love’s fault. He has lost time due to injury. He is currently dealing with one. His receivers have dropped 23 passes, the third-most among playoff quarterbacks. There’s no easy answer, but Love and the Packers’ passing attack has only shown glimpses of its full potential in the last five or six weeks. Maybe Love can return to the form we saw at this time last year, but it’s hard to have full confidence right now.

10. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings

Darnold would have been higher on this list a week ago, but the game against Detroit was the kind of performance that shakes your faith. Against the Lions, Darnold missed several explosive plays and three potential touchdowns with bad throws or missed reads. As good as this year has been, the final impression is quite harsh. Considering how much we haven’t seen him yet in the postseason, it’s hard to say he can be trusted.

11. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

It’s good advice to be careful with rookies in the postseason, no matter how strong their regular season was. Rookie starting quarterbacks are 10-18 in the playoffs since the 2002 realignment. That said, if you’re going to trust a rookie, Daniels is the one. Already at this young stage in his career, he has engineered four winning series, including two in the final month of the season. He oozes confidence and his accuracy and mobility give him a deep pocket to draw from.

12. CJ Stroud, Houston Texans

To be clear, this is a Texans problem, not necessarily a Stroud problem. But the bottom line is that it has been a difficult year in Houston. Stroud is one of three quarterbacks this season to have been sacked 50 times. Among quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks, he has had the fifth most pressure. The receiving corps is depleted by injuries. The running game is one of the most inefficient in the league. Stroud should be fine long-term, but it’s hard to have confidence in the 2024 Texans’ offense.

13. bo nix, Denver Broncos

The real story of Nix’s season lies somewhere between what you hear from his fans and his detractors. It’s objectively incredible that he led Denver to 10 wins and scored 33 touchdowns as a rookie. It is still far from being a finished product, as we have seen on occasions. Still, his athleticism should give him a great chance to frustrate the Bills in their playoff debut.

14. Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers

If we were to rely solely on professional achievements, Wilson would deserve a much higher ranking. Unfortunately, nine playoff wins don’t feel as important when the last one happened in 2020, and when Wilson has struggled as much as he did last month. It didn’t look like we were headed here two months ago, when he posted a passer rating above 100 five times in his first seven games. Since then, ratings have dropped, as have the Steelers’ point totals.

David Helman covers the NFL for FOX Sports and hosts the NFL Podcast on FOX. He previously spent nine seasons covering the Cowboys for the team’s official website. In 2018, she won a regional Emmy for her role in the production of “Dak Prescott: A Family Reunion” about the quarterback’s time at Mississippi State. Follow him on Twitter at @davidhelman_.

Want great stories delivered straight to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily.