Joel Klatt’s CFP Picks: Notre Dame built for this moment; The state of Ohio cannot be stopped

The College Football Playoff Semifinals are here and I really couldn’t be more excited about these games.

First, seventh-seeded Notre Dame will face sixth-seeded Penn State in the Orange Bowl on Thursday night. A day later, No. 8 seed Ohio State and No. 5 seed Texas will meet in the Cotton Bowl; In fact, I predicted those two teams would meet in the national championship at the beginning of the season.

I feel like one of these games will be a bit of a close battle, while the other might be more decisive. I have a good track record this season, going 54-33 on my picks against the spread.

The expanded CFP has been incredible up to this point. Let’s hope these two games continue with the excitement.

Orange Bowl: Notre Dame (-1.5) vs. Penn State (Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET)

One thing that was very obvious in Notre Dame’s victory over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl is that it is built for the CFP. This is a fast, physical team that is built in the mold of a team that can win a championship.

I feel the same about Penn State too, but I feel more about Notre Dame. The Irish were quick and physical at the line of scrimmage in the quarterfinals, making it difficult for the Bulldogs to win the battle in the trenches. That’s something we never would have said about a Notre Dame-Georgia matchup in the past, but it rang true this season.

It’s quite remarkable what Notre Dame has done through all of its adversity. He lost two starting offensive linemen, two edge rushers, All-American cornerback Benjamin Morrison and defensive tackle Rylie Mills during the season. They still have standout safety Xavier Watts, but Notre Dame is playing very well and defeated Georgia with relative ease despite missing those key players. That speaks to the depth that head coach Marcus Freeman has been able to reach and develop. It really is an incredible list.

Notre Dame’s depth will be tested against Penn State. James Franklin has been moving toward this moment for years. It wasn’t long ago that they lost handily to Ohio State and Michigan in conference play. It came very close against Ohio State this year and nearly defeated Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game.

[Read more: James Franklin, Marcus Freeman set to make college football history, more to come]

Now, Penn State needs to win. The wins over SMU and Boise State were games I should have won. Thursday is a turning point for this program.

There are health issues on both sides of this game. Penn State running back Abdul Carter is the big one. It is questionable if he will be able to play or be at 100% with that arm/shoulder injury. He must be able to be on the field for Penn State to win. That was evident against Boise State. Carter’s impact on the game is felt significantly because he is such a disruptive force at the line of scrimmage. He plays as a free disruptor, lining up as a linebacker, defensive end and on the interior of the defensive line. That makes it difficult for offenses to know how to stop him. Carter’s presence is a big part of Penn State’s defensive success in this game, also due to the dual-threat ability of Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard.

On the other hand, Irish running back Jeremiyah Love is dealing with a knee problem. He’s a dynamic running back and I think he could have been even better if Notre Dame had a better passing game. I wasn’t confident in Love’s ability in the practice clips I saw this week, as he looked clumsy with that knee pad on. It appears to move at three-quarter speed and smoothly when rounding cones and making cuts. So, I have a hard time believing that it will be as effective as we have become accustomed to. Love is expected to play, but I thought running back Jadarian Price was also effective against Georgia. Ohio State and Oregon’s running backs were key in their wins over Penn State, so I think Notre Dame will really need Love and Price to be effective on Thursday.

I expect Penn State to put some decent pressure on Leonard. Georgia was effective in pressuring Leonard, but I think the quarterback’s experience helped Notre Dame from the start. However, Notre Dame’s passing game isn’t great, so that should help give Penn State some pressure.

Changing the units, I don’t think this is a very good matchup for Penn State. I’ve asked Franklin in the past what he thinks is holding his team back. His answer is consistent and typically says that Penn State doesn’t have that receiver you can rely on in a big situation. Normally that type of actor is needed in the CFP. For Penn State, it’s tight end Tyler Warren. If it’s a tight end and not an outside player, the secondary can better focus on one player. Notre Dame’s secondary is very good and that section favors the Irish.

The most important key for each team will be the ability to stop the opposing team’s running game. Each team needs its run game to really get going, however, both defenses have done an excellent job of stopping the run game in recent games. Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty rushed for a season-low 104 yards on 30 carries against Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl. Notre Dame held Indiana and Georgia to less than 65 rushing yards.

So when you consider Penn State’s strong run defense, Notre Dame’s plan to win will be to establish Leonard as the run game. Notre Dame was most effective against Georgia when it ran pass rush options, but if Leonard is going to drop back and pass, that will favor Penn State in a big way. Notre Dame needs to incorporate Leonard into the running game to help offset a compromised Love. If Leonard can be effective running the ball early, that will open up Notre Dame’s ability to use RPO and throw the ball effectively.

Defensively, Notre Dame’s plan will be to take out PSU RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen while doubling Warren. That’s the whole game plan. It’s an internal game plan. You live with everything that happens outside of the numbers.

If any of those things happen, Penn State wins. That’s why Penn State’s plan to win, at least offensively, is the mandate Franklin gave offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki when he hired him last offseason: get the ball to the best players, especially in big games. . This is not a game where Penn State can see if players other than Allen, Singleton and Warren can be successful. Penn State can’t believe Drew Allar is going to become a consistent passer this late in the season.

Defensively, Penn State has to force Notre Dame into a situation where Leonard has to drop back and pass. The more seconds and lengths Notre Dame faces, the better for Penn State.

In the end, I think this game will be close. So who do I trust? I trust Freeman and the Fighting Irish more. Situationally, Notre Dame knows how to act and execute. He also knows his strengths and leans on them. That’s my biggest problem with Penn State. The Nittany Lions have not played to their strengths in the biggest moments this year.

Pick: Notre Dame 24, Penn State 20 (Notre Dame -1.5)

Cotton Bowl: Ohio State (-5.5) vs. Texas (Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Ohio State is playing the best football in the country and the spread of this game is indicative of that as this matchup is being played in the heart of Texas. In fact, I think the fact that this game is being played in Arlington keeps this line low. That’s how good the Buckeyes have been lately.

I think this game will almost be won or lost in the first quarter. Ohio State has the ability and mentality to come back the same way it defeated Tennessee and Oregon. So Texas’ number one goal has to be surviving the first quarter. Texas has to be prepared for the attack and aggressiveness with which Ohio State will open in order to win this game.

Ohio State’s defense has been strong. The only success Tennessee and Oregon had offensively was getting around their pass rush and connecting with secondary options on passing plays. Neither team was successful through their base offense.

Offensively, Ohio State has had success being aggressive in the passing game early this postseason, attacking in space to take an early lead. That has allowed him to have success in the running game later. Ohio State has abandoned the zone running game we’re used to seeing from head coach Ryan Day because it doesn’t have the offensive line to do that. None of those things are the best thing happening to Ohio State. He has totally changed psychologically, playing with greater freedom and ease after his loss to Michigan. He is playing loose and with a bit of anger during the last two games.

As for Texas, I’ve loved this group for quite some time. I’ve thought he could win the national title since his blowout win at Michigan. Steve Sarkisian is building something great in Texas as this team looks to compete for national titles beyond 2024, but there are some problems with this particular Texas team. Those problems arise when Texas faces a team that can beat its offensive line. Georgia did that a couple of times, as did Arizona State. That’s where the problem lies for Texas. Ohio State’s run defense is among the top five in the country and I think it’s better than Georgia and Arizona State. That Ohio State defense has also played incredibly well in the CFP. The Buckeyes had eight sacks and 13 tackles for loss in their Rose Bowl victory.

When Texas’ running game is eliminated, the dynamic nature of its play selection changes. Instead of being able to use play-action, QB Quinn Ewers has to put on his cape. He was able to do that against Arizona State, but he couldn’t do it against Georgia. Ohio State has taken away the first read from its opposing quarterbacks, which would make Ewers hold the ball longer for an overtime run and make it even harder for him to put on the cape and be successful.

This Ohio State offense cannot be stopped. The marriage of Day and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s offensive styles has been beautiful. You have to be disruptive as a defense, and you have to expect QB Will Howard to play like he did against Michigan and not like he has the last two games. Howard’s Rose Bowl movie was the best movie he ever released. I feel like Howard’s play in the CFP (throwing five touchdowns in the two games, while connecting with Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka for big plays) has been one of the least discussed stories so far this postseason.

I don’t see Ohio State taking its foot off the gas, and Texas hasn’t looked its best in the second half of the year. The dominoes that have to fall in Texas’ favor are too many and there are many paths to victory for Ohio State. If Ohio State continues to play the way they have, they should win this game.

Pick: Ohio State 35, Texas 21 (Ohio State -5.5)

Joel Klatt is the lead college football game analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.“Follow him on @joelklatt and subscribe to the “Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.

[Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily.]