College Football Playoff: Ranking first-round CFP games and top bowl matchups

After a wild championship weekend, the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff has been set. 

Oregon, Georgia, Boise State and Arizona State – all of whom won their respective conference championship games – earned first-round byes. Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame and Ohio State will host on-campus games in the first round, prompting fans to quickly look at some early weather forecasts. Clemson, Tennessee, Indiana and SMU round out the field.

There was some drama, of course, as the selection committee had to make the tough decision to include SMU or Alabama in that final slot. Clemson knocked off SMU late Saturday night in the ACC title game thanks to a walk-off 56-yard field goal to clinch an automatic bid. The loss left the Mustangs hoping the committee would do right by them. In the end, the Crimson Tide – who were outplayed by Oklahoma in late November – were left out and the Mustangs were rewarded with the No. 11 seed. 

CFP committee chairman Warde Manuel explained the discussion inside the room during ESPN’s selection show:

“We looked at the number of wins that Alabama had against ranked opponents. We looked at SMU’s schedule and they were undefeated in conference. Their losses were to ranked teams, but we also looked at Alabama’s losses to unranked teams, and it was quite a debate. 

“We value strength of schedule. That’s why Alabama as a three-loss team is ranked ahead of other teams that have two losses. It is something that we talked about quite a bit. But in the balance of it, in the way SMU played in that [ACC title game], losing on a last-second field goal – great win by Clemson, great game – we just felt like SMU, in this particular case, still had the nod at No. 10 above Alabama. But it’s no disrespect to Alabama’s strength of schedule. It’s merely looking at the entire body of work for both teams.”

With that, here are the top CFP games to watch (and other top bowl matchups to keep an eye on this postseason):

1. No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State (Saturday, Dec. 21 at 8 p.m. ET)

For Ohio State, “it’s all about moving forward.” That’s what Ryan Day said several times after the final field was released on Sunday. The Buckeyes, of course, are coming off a shocking 13-10 home loss to rival Michigan which kept them out of the Big Ten Championship Game. Their national title hopes are still very much alive, however – they’ll face Tennessee in primetime in Columbus on Dec. 21, and it will be the first time the programs have met since the 1996 Citrus Bowl. The winner faces Oregon in the quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl. 

The Buckeyes have been in this situation before. Two years ago, after losing to Michigan, they went onto the CFP and nearly beat eventual champion Georgia had it not been for missing a game-winning field goal. This Buckeyes’ team had a near-flawless regular season with one of the most loaded rosters in the country. They’re plenty capable of dusting themselves off after a loss to Michigan and making a run.

They’ll have to knock off Tennessee, a team with a strong running game led by Dylan Sampson, who is one of only two RBs to rush for more than 1,000 yards in the SEC this year (1,485 yards). QB Nico Iamaleava has had an impressive freshman season and his O-line will need to keep him upright. Vols edge James Pearce Jr. leads the team with 11 TFL and 7.5 sacks and Jermod McCoy has four interceptions, the second-most in the SEC. Both teams have top-five defenses, though, and Tennessee’s could have more work cut out for them facing all the weapons the Buckeyes have offensively in Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins.

“We’ve got our work cut out for us,” Day told ESPN.

2.  No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas (Saturday, Dec. 21 at 4 p.m. ET)

Dabo Swinney has only been to DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin one time. And it was to watch quarterback Cade Klubnik in a playoff game for Westlake High School.

“I was in the end zone with [Steve Sarkisian],” Swinney told ESPN. Of course, Klubnik is now Clemson’s QB and led the Tigers to a thrilling 34-31 win over SMU in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday night that earned them a spot in the CFP. While the history between Texas and Clemson isn’t extensive, Klubnik and Texas QB Quinn Ewers know each other pretty well. They played against each other in the 2020 Texas State Championship game where Klubnik’s Westlake team beat Ewers’ Southlake Carroll team, 52-34. Texas defensive back Michael Taafe was also on that Westlake team, and intercepted Ewers in the game.

Another interesting wrinkle in this matchup is that one of the Longhorns’ top DBs – Andrew Mukuba – started his career at Clemson before transferring to Texas. While Swinney has been criticized for his distaste for the transfer portal, the Horns have certainly benefited in a number of positions.

This is a matchup nobody predicted entering the season, but it’s certainly going to be an intriguing one. Texas only lost two games this season, both to Georgia, the second coming in the SEC title game; Clemson had three regular-season losses: Georgia, Louisville, and rival South Carolina, before backing into the ACC championship and winning it. 

The Longhorns have one of the best defenses in the country with an offense that can be shaky at times as Ewers has been a bit turnover prone. Clemson is pretty disruptive and ranks fifth nationally in turnover margin (1.23). Whoever makes the least number of mistakes in this one will win and go on to play Arizona State in the Peach Bowl.

“It will be awesome competing against those guys,” Swinney said. “They’re a great team.”

3. No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State (Saturday, Dec. 21 at Noon ET)

SMU earned the No. 11 seed as the last at-large selection over Alabama, irking some and delighting others. Penn State, meanwhile, earned the No. 6 seed (which some believe is the most ideal placement in the field) after losing 45-37 to No. 1 Oregon in the Big Ten championship. The winner of this unlikely showdown will face No. 3 Boise State and Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty in the Fiesta Bowl.

Let’s get this part out of the way: yes, it’s going to be cold. Nittany Lions coach James Franklin joked on ESPN that “it will be a white-out for sure.” According to the Weather Channel, the high on Dec. 21 is 32 degrees with a low of 23. It has yet to hit those temps in Dallas this college football season.

Quarterbacks highlight this matchup. Penn State’s Drew Allar has been up and down. He’s completed 69.1% of his passes for 2,894 yards and is averaging 8.9 yards per attempt this season. But in three games against ranked opponents – vs. Illinois, Ohio State and Oregon – he’s thrown three touchdowns against three interceptions. The Nittany Lions didn’t have a touchdown against Ohio State in early November, though they kept it close, losing 20-13. In Kevin Jennings, SMU has a dual-threat QB who will test the Nittany Lions defensively. He’s thrown for 3,050 yards with 22 touchdowns and eight interceptions this season, while adding 379 yards rushing with five scores on 4.1 yards per carry.

Though Franklin noted he hasn’t seen a ton of film on the Mustangs yet, he’s well aware of how explosive the offense is. Rhett Lashlee’s group has the sixth-ranked scoring offense in the country, putting up 38.5 ppg. They hasn’t faced a defense like Penn State’s – a top-10 scoring defense that has limited opponents to 16.4 ppg. Only Oregon scored more than 30 points against PSU all season.

4.  No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame (Friday, Dec. 20 at 8 p.m. ET)

Notre Dame and Indiana are only 200 miles apart, but the schools haven’t played each other since 1991. That record will be broken when the Fighting Irish and Hoosiers meet to open the CFP on what will certainly be a chilly night at Notre Dame Stadium on Dec. 20. The winner will face Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.

Both teams only have one loss on their résumé: IU lost to Ohio State on the road in November, while Notre Dame was upset at home in Week 2 by Northern Illinois. The Hoosiers kept things tight with the Buckeyes in the first half, but couldn’t hang in the second. First-year head coach Curt Cignetti, who has led the program to its first 11-win season ever, said on ESPN on Sunday that the crowd noise had a major impact.

“It was our first big game on the road in a hostile environment,” Cignetti said, noting that they were forced to go to a silent count on the third play of the game. 

There were breakdowns in communication and missed assignments and other mistakes the team hadn’t made all year up to that point. Ever since, IU has been piping crowd noise into practice more frequently. Notre Dame Stadium (capacity: 77,622) likely won’t match the rowdiness of the Horseshoe (102,780), but IU will be ready. 

As far as what to watch, Notre Dame loves to run the ball. The Irish are averaging 224.8 rushing ypg and 196.4 passing, and they lean on a three-headed attack in Jeremiyah Love (949 yards, 15 TDs) and Jadarian Price (651, 7 TD), as well as QB Riley Leonard (721, 14 TD). The trio will be a test for the Hoosier’s top-ranked unit, which has limited opponents to 70.8 ypg on the ground and has allowed only 10 rushing touchdowns this year. Despite the end result, Indiana held Ohio State’s dominant running back tendom of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins under 70 yards apiece.

Other bowl games to watch:

Las Vegas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. USC (Friday, Dec. 27 at 10:30 p.m. ET)

Texas A&M takes on USC in a matchup of big-brand programs that were expected to be in the CFP conversation, but whose seasons didn’t go as planned.

Pop-Tarts Bowl: Miami vs. Iowa State (Saturday, Dec. 28 at 3:30 p.m. ET)

Miami battles Iowa State in a matchup between teams who came close but not close enough to making the CFP. Plus, everybody loves the Pop-Tarts bowl!

ReliaQuest Bowl: Alabama vs. Michigan (Tuesday, Dec. 31 at noon ET)

It’s Alabama vs. Michigan in a rematch of last year’s Rose Bowl.

Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She previously wrote for Sports Illustrated, USA Today and The Indianapolis Star. She is the author of “Strong Like a Woman,” published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her at @LakenLitman.

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