2024 NFL Week 16 action report: Patrick Mahomes injury causes chaos in the books

Since the middle of the 2022-23 season, more than two seasons worth of games ago, no team has been a better point spread bet than the Detroit Lions. Heading into Week 13 of this season, the Lions were not only on a 32-9 run (SU), but also 32-9 against the spread (ATS).

However, Detroit has failed to cover in each of its last three games: two ATS losses and one push. So, does that keep bettors off the Lions in the NFL Week 16 odds, on the road against the Chicago Bears?

Well, no.

“That doesn’t deter anyone from betting on the Lions here. The public still loves the Lions,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.

Astute betmakers and bettors offer their thoughts on Lions vs. Bears and even meatier matchups (the Houston Texans vs. the Kansas City Chiefs and the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. the Baltimore Ravens) as we dive into the NFL Week 16 betting nuggets.

Turn change

When Patrick Mahomes exited the Chiefs’ 21-7 win over Cleveland with an ankle injury in the fourth quarter, bettors had to redo their calculations for NFL Week 16 odds. A week ago, when Caesars Sports posted preview lines for this week’s matchups, the Chiefs opened as 4-point home favorites.

In the wake of Mahomes’ injury and the strong expectation that he would not play this week, Caesars reopened Sunday night at Texans -2.

“We had a decent amount of Texans money at -2,” Feazel said.

That led Caesars to move Houston to -3. That’s a 7-point change from the anticipation line. Which sounds good, considering we’re talking about Patrick Mahomes.

Then, on Tuesday, when Mahomes practiced and indicated he expected to play Saturday, the pendulum made another massive swing, toward Kansas City (13-1 SU/6-8 ATS).

“Now we’ve seen the line go from -3 Texans to -3 Chiefs. Our opinion is that Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league,” Feazel said, adding a caveat for this season. “But this year, the Chiefs aren’t relying on an explosive offense to win games.”

Because as Feazel added, KC’s offense just isn’t as explosive this year. Still, the public is attentive to Chiefs vs. Houston (8-6 SU/6-8 ATS) for this Saturday at 1 pm ET.

“To no one’s surprise, we’re seeing Chiefs money, along with the Under,” Feazel said.

However, the total has increased in this game, as Mahomes is now apparently available. The total opened at 41.5, dropped to 39.5 and then recovered to 42 midweek.

All that said, the Under hit in Kansas City’s last three games.

The NFL shines on FOX

FOX is home to multiple notable matchups in the NFL Week 16 odds. We’ll get back to that Lions-Bears game in a moment, but there are two more matchups that are sure to draw a lot of betting attention.

The first is Steelers vs. Ravens, Saturday at 4:30 pm ET. Caesars opened Baltimore -7, dropped to -6.5 on Sunday night and -6 on Monday. As of Wednesday night, the spread is Ravens -6 (-115).

“The Steelers were able to steal that first win against Baltimore,” Feazel said, alluding to an 18-16 Pittsburgh win at home in Week 11. “This week, we’re seeing a lot of money from the Ravens, which is not a surprise. May this be a place of revenge.

“There are some Steelers moneyline bets, but the action is primarily Ravens in the spread, along with the Under. And I think the Ravens money will be exacerbated if George Pickens stays out of Pittsburgh.”

Pickens, the Steelers’ leading receiver, is questionable with a hamstring injury. He missed last week’s loss in Philadelphia. Pittsburgh is 10-4 SU and ATS, while Baltimore is 9-5 SU/7-6-1 ATS.

In Sunday’s first window on FOX, at 1 pm ET, it will be the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders. The Eagles (12-2 SU/9-5 ATS) are on a 10-game winning streak, going 7-3 ATS in that span.

Washington (9-5 SU/8-5-1 ATS) has won its last two games following a three-game skid. But Jayden Daniels and company were unimpressive in a 20-19 win in New Orleans last week.

“The Commanders were 7-point favorites last week and almost lost to two backup quarterbacks,” Feazel said. “We’re seeing more Eagles money, which isn’t surprising since the Eagles have become NFC favorites.”

In fact, Philadelphia is +200 to win the NFC, beating Detroit (+230). The Eagles also moved to No. 2 in Super Bowl odds at +430, behind favorite Buffalo (+400).

Limping lions

Detroit has suffered a host of key injuries on defense this year, most notably to disruptive defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, who suffered a season-ending leg fracture in Week 6. The Lions (12-2 SU /9-4-1 ATS) there are 15 defensive players on injured reserve.

It showed at home in Week 15 against Buffalo. Josh Allen & Co. racked up yards and points in a 48-42 victory.

Still, Detroit opened as a 7-point road favorite against Chicago (4-10 SU/7-6-1 ATS) in the Week 16 NFL odds, for a 1 pm ET kickoff on FOX. The Lions fell to -6.5 on Tuesday at Caesars.

Feazel noticed a bit of skepticism from the Lions, hence that line went down. But as noted above, the public betting masses are in Detroit this week, although perhaps not for the usual reason.

“That probably has more to do with the opponent than confidence in the Lions,” Feazel said.

Detroit is also missing running back David Montgomery, whose season could be over due to an MCL injury.

“That will have an impact, and that’s probably why we’re seeing some Under money in this game,” Feazel said.

In fact, the total increased earlier this week, from 46.5 to 48.5. But then it fell one step back to 48.

NFL Sharp Side

Professional bettor Randy McKay’s first play this week is a 6-point lead between two teams. For those unfamiliar, a teaser bet is very similar to an accumulator bet, but with a more favorable point distribution for the teams being bet on.

That favorable spread comes with a lower payout. But breakthroughs can be a worthwhile pursuit. So, McKay is taking the Denver Broncos +8.5/Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 as a teaser play. Denver travels to face the Los Angeles Chargers in Thursday night’s game, while Cincinnati is at home against Cleveland on Sunday.

“Denver comes into this game healthier than a banged-up Los Angeles team that won earlier this year in Denver. They’re two different teams to close out the season,” McKay said. “And Cincinnati will have too much offense for a Cleveland team banking on its third-string quarterback, Dorian Thompson-Robinson.”

The Browns announced Tuesday the benching of Jameis Winston, who took over seven games ago after Deshaun Watson suffered a torn Achilles tendon.

McKay will also be in the Steelers-Ravens matchup on Saturday, taking Pittsburgh +6.5. But as Feazel pointed out, McKay said attention needs to be paid to who plays and who doesn’t.

“Keep an eye on the injury report here, with [wideout] George Pickens and defensive end TJ Watt,” McKay said, noting that Pickens (hamstring) and Watt (ankle) are questionable. “Pittsburgh won 18-16 earlier this season, and this game could be a battle again low score for the two rivals. “.

Finally, McKay likes Carolina +4.5 at home against Arizona.

“Carolina was a favorite last week against Dallas, but now she’s back in the underdog role,” McKay said. “Quarterback Bryce Young was playing well before last week and won’t have as many problems against a middling Arizona defense.”

I like big bets and I can’t lie

Maybe high rollers are using a little more of their money this week on holiday gifts. As of Wednesday night, Caesars Sports had just one six-figure bet to consider in NFL Week 16 odds.

A customer from Nevada bet $125,000 on the Eagles -3 (-125) against the Commanders. If the Eagles win by more than 3, the bettor will make a profit of $100,000, for a total payout of $225,000.

Here’s a remainder of NFL Week 15 on Monday night: $40,000 on Raiders +5.5 (-105) vs. Falcons. Atlanta didn’t play well at all and the Falcons actually benched QB Kirk Cousins ​​afterwards, but they won 15-9.

So the bettor didn’t get the coverage. And there is a lesson to be learned here. The Raiders closed as underdogs by 6 or 6.5 points, depending on where you bet: it was -6 at Caesars. That half point/full point proved critical. A bet at +6 results in a push and a refund, and +6.5 would have been a winner.

If you are betting on the underdog and the line is +5.5, then maybe wait until closer to kickoff and see if you can get +6 or even better. Just a little public service announcement.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting field. He lives in Las Vegas, where he likes to play golf in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas

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