NFL debate: Making the case for, against 2024 Coach of the Year candidates

This conversation has been brewing for weeks now, and it’s finally coming to a hand: who exactly is going to win NFL Coach of the Year for 2024? More importantly, how are half a dozen other fanbases going to feel when it’s not their guy?

Coach of the Year is often a hotly-contested topic, and it’s usually complicated by its subjectivity. Should it go to the guy who exceeded the expectations, or the guy who oversaw the best season? Is it an award for steering the best roster to the best spot, or for turning around a bad team? No two people feel the same way.

That’s going to lead to some fun conversations in the next month, as there’s no shortage of deserving candidates this season. Below is a list of a whopping nine deserving candidates, and that doesn’t even include some fantastic coaching jobs happening with the Eagles, Rams and Seahawks. The competition is just that good — you can at least build a case for almost half the head coaches in the NFL.

Such as it is, this story’s already long enough. Below, we sought to build the best case for — and against — the most likely head coaching candidates to take home the hardware at season’s end.

Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions
Current odds: -175

The case for: Remember that “kicking ass and taking names?” criteria I outlined in the case for Harbaugh [see below]? Yeah, well Motor City Dan Campbell is doing just that. He’s taken one of the sorriest franchises in the league (historically speaking) and turned them into a bona fide Juggernaut with a capital “J.” The Lions aren’t just winning right now. They’re dominating. They’ve already matched their win total from last year and we just got out of Week 14. They’ve lost one game all year, even though they’re in the toughest division in football. 

And while some games have looked like massacres, others haven’t looked so pretty. Yet, Detroit comes out on the right side of them. The entire team has this unshakeable belief in itself and it stems from Campbell himself. It’s why he can get away with going for it on fourth down on his own 30-yard line in a three-point game against a division opponent. Even when it doesn’t work out, which it didn’t against the Green Bay Packers, no one bats an eye. That’s despite a rash of defensive injuries, too. The word quit isn’t in these Lions’ vocabulary. They’re as gritty as the city they come from and that whole city, nay, the whole state is behind them. They even have fans of other teams rooting for them as perhaps the most likeable team in recent memory. 

It’s no longer Detroit vs. Everybody, it’s Detroit with Everybody. 

As a CEO head coach, that is, one that doesn’t call plays, it can be easy to direct praise (or blame) to the play-callers. Don’t forget, though. Campbell brought them in too, and even elevated Ben Johnson to his current role from tight ends coach in Campbell’s first year. And yes, obviously Johnson and Aaron Glenn deserve heaps of praise for what they’ve been able to do (and the petty kings they are in a lot of cases). Johnson is having a ton of fun concocting new and different ways to get right tackle Penei Sewell the ball, while Glenn is bringing in guys off the street due to his starters being injured and fielding aggressive, militant defenses. It’s incredible.

And yet, Campbell is the story because of the identity he established and the adrenaline he injects in the veins of the entire organization. He’s egging on his linemen puking their guts out postgame during his speeches, he’s letting the fill-in guys trot out as the starters in pre-game player intros, all while making Starbucks runs with his wife and tiny little dogs. Whether it’s on the field or off of it, he embodies everything you could want in a football coach and it’s translating to success for his entire team. What’s more deserving than that?

The case against: The Lions were expected to come out swinging this year after falling two quarters short of the Super Bowl last season. Detroit has had a target on their back all season because they were supposed to contend. And they are. With style. But if you’re one of those who think this award should go to coaches doing more with less, then Campbell may not be your guy. 

Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota Vikings
Current odds: +400

The case for: How much time do we have? O’Connell has surpassed any and all expectations this season by a large margin. Kirk Cousins leaves in free agency and left the Vikings with no good options at quarterback. They weren’t quite far down enough to have a shot at one of the main quarterback prospects in the draft. The free-agent quarterback class was headlined by the guy who left. It looked like Minnesota was plunging into yet another “competitive rebuild” year. Sure, they still had a ton of talent on the roster, both offensively and defensively. They had a defense that could probably win them some games. But this team wasn’t supposed to be viable.

Well, they go out and get Sam Darnold to be a bridge for the quarterback they ended up drafting in J.J. McCarthy. The plan was to take their time with McCarthy and ease him in after his limited experience at Michigan. It was the absolute best place for a developmental prospect to go. They could let him sit for maybe the first half of the season before putting him in later once it was clear the Vikings weren’t really going anywhere this year. No pressure.

Boy, were we all wrong. Not only did McCarthy suffer an injury in the preseason, thrusting Darnold into the permanent starting role, but Darnold then thrived. He’s currently a top-10 quarterback across most major passing metrics. He ranks second in touchdown percentage at 7.3%. Darnold is on pace for 4,314 yards and 37 touchdowns. Thirty-seven! The guy that had been the butt of every joke on his way out of the NEW YORK JETS organization was now the NFL’s biggest comeback story (injuries aside) and perhaps the founding member of the Kevin O’Connell Center for Players Who Can’t QB Good (and want to QB better, and do other things better as well). 

And somehow that may not even be the most impressive thing about O’Connell’s coaching tenure in Minnesota. 

By this point, teams know wide receiver Justin Jefferson is public enemy No. 1 when you play the Vikings. He’s arguably the best receiver in the league. Jefferson already has Offensive Player of the Year award and All-Pros, plural, under his belt. So if teams know they need to shut him down, how is it that Jefferson currently leads the NFL in receiving yards? Teams build their defensive gameplans around shutting Jefferson down and yet he’s gone over 100 receiving yards in four games this season. A lot of that speaks to Jefferson’s sheer talent and ability. But another good chunk of that is because of the way O’Connell schemes his offense to get Jefferson open, anyway. That’s not easy to do when everyone is gunning for him yet O’Connell does it, anyway.

Add in the fact O’Connell helped get Brian Flores to Minnesota in 2023 as the defensive coordinator and has let him go wild (literally) with that unit, who has a better case for Coach of the Year?

The case against: Dan Campbell and Mike Tomlin exist. And that might not be enough because KOC has a legitimate shot to win this, just ask Vegas.

Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers
Current odds: +500

The case for: It’s not just that the Steelers are gunning for the AFC North title, or that Mike Tomlin has secured another winning record. Stuff like that happens every year in Pittsburgh. 

Specifically, what makes Tomlin stand out for potentially winning his first Coach of the Year award is the decision he made to get to this point. The Steelers were cruising along at 4-2 and had just beaten the Raiders by 19 points when Tomlin decided to bench Justin Fields in favor of Russell Wilson. It was a call Tomlin made on his own, and he got a ton of pushback — including from within his own building.

Flash forward two months, and the Steelers are 6-1 with Wilson under center. More important than the record is the way they’re playing. Pittsburgh is averaging 65 more yards and scoring seven more points per game with Wilson than they were with Fields. That’s the difference between being a forgettable wild card team and being a contender.

That’s what the Steelers look like – a real contender. It’s the first time you can truly say that about one of Tomlin’s teams since probably 2017. That’s all thanks to him.

The case against: Tomlin’s resume looks impeccable to this point, but the Steelers can’t afford to let up now. They have a two-game lead on Baltimore for the division, with one win against the Ravens already under their belt. No one’s saying it’ll be easy, but it would be a disappointment to let this slip.

Sean Payton, Denver Broncos
Current odds: +750

The case for: The Broncos have been the target of a lot of jokes since Sean Payton took over, but it doesn’t feel like anyone’s joking now.

As calamitous as the start of Payton’s Broncos tenure was, he’s coached this team to an 8-5 record and currently has a 75% chance of making the playoffs in Year 2. That percentage can jump as high as 91% if they can beat the pesky Colts this weekend.

That’s a wild place for a team starting a rookie quarterback to be. The Broncos’ preseason win total was set at 5.5, largely because they were expected to start Bo Nix under center. Speaking of laughs, that’s another often-mocked decision that doesn’t seem to be drawing criticism anymore. Of course, Nix has room to grow, but Payton has him looking the part of a franchise quarterback just three months into his career.

Coaching Nix to a Rookie of the Year type of season might be enough to win Coach of the Year on its own, but Payton is also doing that while helping the Broncos break the second-longest playoff drought in the NFL.

The case against: As impressive as this season might be, the Broncos are still unlikely to finish higher than the AFC’s No. 6 seed. It’s one thing to be the second-best team in your own division, but there’s a very real chance Denver finishes third in the AFC West.

That shouldn’t temper anyone’s excitement about this turnaround, or about the future of this team. This just so happens to be an incredibly tough field for Coach of the Year.

Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles Chargers
Current odds: +850

The case for: Harbaugh is an excellent litmus test for how you view this award. Is it the guy kicking ass and taking names? Or is it the guy who is exceeding expectations? The Chargers are doing a little bit of both this year, but especially the latter. There was a lot of confidence in Harbaugh given his prior NFL success, but there was no doubt where Los Angeles heads were this offseason. They offloaded Keenan Allen via trade, cut Mike Williams, let Austin Ekeler go in free agency and the only reason guys like Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa remained on the roster was because they agreed to pay cuts. 

This team was bracing for a full-on rebuild with Harbaugh at the helm but it hasn’t taken even a season to see the vision. Harbaugh hired Jesse Minter as defensive coordinator, who leads the league’s best scoring defense, built through the trenches with the Chargers’ available draft capital and instilled a culture that is single-handedly bucking the definition of “Chargering.”

While a lot was made about the run game, and seeing a resurgent season from J.K. Dobbins before he got injured, Harbaugh now has Justin Herbert playing some of the best football of his career. He has an almost delusional confidence in his quarterback, that he isn’t shy about sharing with Herbert himself or the cameras. Harbaugh hypes his guys up to an unbelievable degree and has gotten their buy-in in return. While the Chiefs yet again took the AFC West, the Chargers are now a real-deal playoff team in Harbaugh’s first season when everyone, including the organization itself, had more questions than answers about this season prior to its start,

The case against: If the Chargers had contended for the division, I think Harbaugh would have run away with this award. But there was a lot of confidence in his abilities in Vegas, in particular. And we all know Vegas knows. The over/under on Los Angeles’ win total this season was 8.5. They’ll surpass that with their next win. So if expectations were that high in the preseason, can we really say they’ve totally outperformed them enough for Harbaugh to win?

Dan Quinn, Washington Commanders
Current odds: +1500

The case for: The football team located in the Washington D.C. area is fun, well-coached and looking like a lock to make the playoffs. Isn’t that reason enough to name Dan Quinn as Coach of the Year?

Please don’t discount how meaningful the Commanders’ turnaround is. This isn’t your run-of-the-mill bad team that’s rebounding from a 4-13 season with a hotshot rookie quarterback. This is Washington — the franchise where hopes and dreams have gone to die for roughly 30 years. People with back pain and healthy 401ks don’t remember when Washington was a reliably good team — let alone a Super Bowl contender.

For that reason alone, Quinn fits the bill. The Commanders’ defense is leaps and bounds better than last year’s unit, and obviously, Jayden Daniels is a frontrunner for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Turning Washington into a fun football town is a feat worthy of an award.

The case against: Did the Commanders peak too early? We’ll see. There’s still plenty of season left, but Washington felt like the story of October, as they responded to an 0-1 start by winning seven of their next eight games. Since the calendar turned to November, though, the Commanders are just 2-3 and they sit firmly behind Philadelphia in the NFC East standings. Against this many deserving candidates, Quinn is going to need a strong finish to beat out the field.

Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs
Current odds: +2000

The case for: It honestly feels wild that Andy Reid hasn’t won Coach of the Year during this incredible run of nine-straight division titles, 10-straight playoff appearances and three total Super Bowls with Kansas City. Coach of the Year isn’t supposed to be a lifetime achievement award, but it’s an oversight that Reid hasn’t won this trophy since 2002, when he was still in Philadelphia.

Fortunately, Reid has done plenty to win it in 2024 on its own merit. Despite the target that’s painted squarely on their backs from winning the last two Super Bowls, the Chiefs are 12-1, with their division already sewn up a month ahead of time.

How they’ve done it has been equally impressive. The wins have all been dramatic, but we’re not giving Reid enough credit for what he’s had to navigate. The Chiefs were expecting Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice to headline their receiver corps, and those guys have played four combined games. They lost Isiah Pacheco in Week 2 and didn’t get him back until Black Friday. They’ve had to deal with Xavier Worthy’s growing pains and the trade for DeAndre Hopkins. Left tackle has been a mess all season.

And yet, the Chiefs are tied for the league’s best record with their sights set on a three-peat. Patrick Mahomes is a big part of it sure, but it’s also a testament to good coaching. 

The case against: As good a coach as Reid has been, you could argue the biggest MVP in Chiefs Kingdom is his defensive counterpart. Steve Spagnuolo runs the show for the Chiefs’ defense, and that unit has allowed more than 20 points in just four games this year. Kansas City’s defense is top-10 in most important metrics and has been every bit as vital to their success as Reid or Mahomes.

Of course, Spagnuolo is still part of Reid’s coaching staff. But in a race this tight, where people decide to assign credit could have a big say in the outcome.

Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers
Current odds: +5000

The case for: The Green Bay Packers have been without starting quarterback Jordan Love for 165 snaps. In that time, it was backup quarterback Malik Willis, who spent training camp with the Tennessee Titans who filled in. More than just filling in, Willis operated the offense under LaFleur’s guidance to lead the Packers to three wins. What was more impressive was how much the offensive scheme and playcalling changed with Willis in vs. what the Packers do with Love.

That was all LaFleur, tinkering with the gameplan, or in the middle of the game against Jacksonville, to maximize Willis’ skillset. In the two games Willis started, he rushed six times. Against his former team, he had 79 yards on the ground and a touchdown. While Love is capable of scrambling, he’s not a guy you design runs for. Willis is, and LaFleur unlocked it while helping him make quick decisions in the passing game. Willis had above a 120 passer rating in all three games he played significant snaps in.

Speaking of the run game, since Green Bay’s bye, LaFleur has diversified it by the week. He’s utilizing running back Josh Jacobs’ football acumen and involving various other players in the offensive backfield. The result is a team that doesn’t run the ball the same way or by the same scheme each game. 

LaFleur also hired defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley this offseason, who has turned a lot around for the Packers’ defense in just one short season. Yes, there are still improvements to be made but the productivity of the defense has been able to mask the flaws that still exist (mostly along the front) in the meantime. 

LaFleur has more than proved he’s an excellent coach with or without a Hall of Fame quarterback (though, I suppose we’ll see). He has the Packers in the thick of the toughest division in football this year and that’s simply not easy to do, especially with a quarterback in and out of the lineup.

The case against: There’s some recency bias, or rather, lack thereof, to consider. Yes, LaFleur was able to coach his way to wins with Willis under center, but that was six weeks ago. There have been some ups and downs as Love has gotten back into the lineup and it’s a crowded field just in the division. The Packers know that more than anyone. Only one of their losses this year came from outside the division and that was opening week in Brazil against the Philadelphia Eagles. Head-to-head they’ve lost both games to the Detroit Lions this year, and though the Thursday night game last week was a coaching masterclass, LaFleur came out on the wrong side of that to one of the leading Coach of the Year candidates.

Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills
Current odds: +5000

The case for: Sean McDermott has a penchant for errors as a game manager, which we were reminded of as recently as this past weekend. That doesn’t change the fact that the guy deserves a lot more credit for the program he’s built in Buffalo.

This year felt like a changing of eras for the Bills and potentially a bit of a reset. Even if the Bills needed to fix their salary cap, it’s still painful to part ways with key pieces like Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Tre’Davious White, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. And even if having Josh Allen helps ease that transition, that wasn’t the narrative over the summer, when many expected the Bills to fall back to the pack in the AFC.

The literal opposite has happened instead. Allen has played like an MVP, McDermott’s defense has played like a top-10 unit and the Bills locked up their division before Thanksgiving. Having the quarterback helps, but — much like Andy Reid — McDermott deserves more love for the consistent results he’s produced across five years now.

The case against: It takes a lot to sway voters when you’re talking about the league’s elite.

The winner of Coach of the Year is often about exceeding expectations. And while it’s true McDermott has done that, he might be a victim of his own success. The Bills have now won the AFC East for five years straight. In the previous four years, they’ve been the AFC’s No. 2 seed three times. This season felt like it finally might be the breakthrough, where they secured the No. 1 seed in the bye week that comes with it — right up until that loss to the Rams.

It’s not fair, but stealing the No. 1 seed from Kansas City might be the extraordinary achievement McDermott would need to win this award. Another 12-win season and No. 2 seed might not be good enough, harsh as that sounds.

Carmen Vitali is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. Carmen had previous stops with The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, including 2020, which added the title of Super Bowl Champion (and boat-parade participant) to her résumé. You can follow Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV. 

David Helman covers the NFL for FOX Sports and hosts the NFL on FOX podcast. He previously spent nine seasons covering the Cowboys for the team’s official website. In 2018, he won a regional Emmy for his role in producing “Dak Prescott: A Family Reunion” about the quarterback’s time at Mississippi State. Follow him on Twitter at @davidhelman_.