Joel Klatt’s CFP title game prediction: Can Notre Dame make it a low-scoring affair?

We made it to the national championship after one of the best college football seasons I can remember.

Ohio State and Notre Dame will battle for the title in Atlanta on Monday. I know some of us don’t like the day the game is played, but we fixed that problem in my Commissioner Klatt story, so let’s focus on this game and celebrate it for what it is.

Here you have my preview and pick for the national championship.

Setting the stage

The Buckeyes have mostly made it through the College Football Playoffs to this point, making them a heavy favorite to win it all. They are 8.5 point favorites as I write this, but I would almost expect the line to move in their direction.

This is a bad matchup for Notre Dame, whose fans will roll their eyes because I’m the same guy who picked Navy to beat them and then Indiana in the first round of the CFP, but picked Notre Dame to win each of their last two games.

The last two wins were good matchups for Notre Dame. Georgia and Penn State had similar weaknesses, with wide receiver being the biggest concern for both. Now, Notre Dame will face a team completely opposite of that. Ohio State can throw in plenty of weapons on the outside with Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate.

It’s not a game that really favors Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish need a low-scoring game. A low-scoring affair favors Marcus Freeman’s team, as we saw in the last few rounds. No one has been able to turn a game into a track meet against Notre Dame because they do a great job of controlling the game on offense by running the ball. On defense, Notre Dame has done a great job stopping the run and controlling first downs while having an excellent secondary.

It’s no mistake that Notre Dame is in this game. As I noted in my semi-final takeaways, Freeman has coached Notre Dame to be a great situational team. Notre Dame was tremendous on third downs and at the end of each half against Penn State. He’s really developed as a young head coach.

Does Freeman have the ability to muddy this game and turn it into a low-scoring street fight? Notre Dame certainly has the personnel to do it. Do I think it will happen? That remains to be seen.

Ohio State’s offense against Notre Dame’s defense

Let’s focus on each team’s plane on both sides of the ball. For Notre Dame’s defense, it’s like what we saw Tom Brady’s New England Patriots team do to win their first Super Bowl in the 2001 NFL season, when they faced the “greatest show on grass” Rams. That game wasn’t about Brady, it was about what his defense did. They muddied the game by being physical with the Rams’ star receivers and making life difficult for Kurt Warner.

That’s exactly what Notre Dame has to do with Ohio State. He has to be physical with the wide receivers. In fact, I would challenge Ohio State to run the ball, particularly on early downs. If you look at Ohio State’s season, they are most dangerous when they get the ball to their wide receivers early to open up the running game later. What it doesn’t do a great job of is establishing the running game early to open up the passing game later.

Notre Dame has to come into this game thinking, “If Ohio State is turning the ball over on first down, let’s take advantage.” Invite the Buckeyes to do it. Play two safeties and don’t stack the box with an extra defender. The film suggests that the ball cannot be allowed to get to Smith, Egbuka and Tate in open space. It also suggests that Will Howard can’t be allowed to throw the ball to his running backs (TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins) with pace out of the backfield. When Ohio State does those things, it becomes a track and field competition, as it did in its first two CFP wins.

Notre Dame can’t win by allowing Ohio State to play that way. You should want Ohio State to play like it did against Nebraska, Michigan and even Texas if it wants to have a chance at pulling off the upset. In each of those games, Ohio State tried to establish the streak early on, but couldn’t. So when you take away Ohio State’s passing game, you’re going to have some struggles and stress.

All three of those teams have excellent defensive tackles. Against Texas, Ohio State also made self-inflicted errors early on that put it behind the sticks largely. In some ways, you have to look at Ohio State’s offense as a flywheel: a big wheel that requires enormous effort to start but is difficult to stop once it’s going. If Ohio State can get into a rhythm, watch out. It is imperative that Notre Dame survive the first quarter like Texas did.

Coverage-wise, Ohio State hasn’t seen much man-to-man coverage this season due to the talent it has at wide receiver. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is a great man-to-man coverage team. In last year’s Ohio State-Notre Dame game, the Irish covered Marvin Harrison Jr. in a similar manner to how Michigan and Texas did with Smith, playing him in double coverage with a safety over the top while staying early in the man. Notre Dame encouraged Ohio State to run the ball in that game last year in South Bend by playing that way. When then-Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord dropped back to pass, he had to hold the ball for a long time.

I think we’ll get something like that in the title game, with Notre Dame playing a run-light defensive end to invite the run and have two players open in man coverage underneath. I don’t love it because you’re still playing Egbuka and Tate in the men’s coverage. Out of the backfield, Henderson and Judkins would face linebackers.

If I were Notre Dame, I would play receiver and not cover a ton of guys like Michigan and Texas did. That made life difficult for Howard. If Notre Dame plays man coverage, Ryan Day and Chip Kelly could have a creative game plan that allows Ohio State’s stars to break loose early and take an insurmountable lead.

In fact, I have a precise number for Notre Dame in this game: 17. I don’t think Notre Dame is going to score more than 17 points, so giving up anything more than that would be detrimental. Notre Dame has a narrow path to victory, just as it did in its last two victories. Those wins came because he executed in key situational moments.

As for Ohio State’s offense, their plan for offensive victory is simple: be aggressive and creative. Ohio State is not a big run and pass team. I know it sounds crazy, but they really excel when they have Howard moving or when they get the ball to their best playmakers quickly. Those plays have allowed Ohio State to make big runs later in the game in each of its first three CFP wins.

Notre Dame’s offense against Ohio State’s defense

Expanding on a point made earlier, I don’t think Notre Dame is going to score much in this game. Ohio State’s defense will be the best defense Notre Dame has faced to this point. Ohio State is good everywhere, particularly getting excellent play from its front seven. He’s been creating pressure while getting elite play at safety from Caleb Downs. He’s also had good play at cornerback this postseason.

So what can you do against Ohio State? Not a ton. First, Notre Dame has to find a way to achieve success on first downs. He can do it one of two ways: rushing quarterback Riley Leonard or throwing the run-pass option. Leonard will have to play the game of his life, both running and potentially throwing the ball. I think he will need to run the ball 15-20 times for Notre Dame to win. He will have to be so efficient in the pass and run option game that he will take Notre Dame out of what it wants to do because it can’t make an obvious deficit (second and long, third and long). ) situations. Ohio State’s pass rush and ability to take away the first read has been very good. Leonard isn’t very good against pressure either, and his numbers dip a lot.

Ohio State has changed its pass rush structure along the edges in the second half of the season to avoid passing the quarterback. That’s why Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau have combined for 10 of the Buckeyes’ 16 sacks this postseason. Those guys convert speed into power, accelerating the offensive tackle before using a power move to collapse the pocket and get to the quarterback.

When Ohio State’s pass rushers execute their pass rush like that, it’s hard to fight them. It will be difficult for Leonard to fight, similar to the struggles of Nico Iamaleava, Dillon Gabriel and Quinn Ewers. He’ll probably be sacked five to seven times if Notre Dame has to throw the ball at obvious times. Notre Dame doesn’t have weapons that are dynamic enough on the outside to threaten Ohio State, so Ohio State will load the box and have its eyes on Leonard and Notre Dame’s running backs.

Ohio State struggled in coverage against Texas running backs in the Cotton Bowl. I think Ohio State will solve that problem. If not, I would look at Jeremiyah Love and Aneyas Williams in the passing game. But Texas throwing the ball to its running backs was a second-half adjustment by Steve Sarkisian’s staff, meaning Ohio State will have to adjust its defensive structure and game plan.

Choose

This matchup is in the hands of the Buckeyes. They have the best squad, offensive and defensive. The only way for the Irish to win is if they can bait them into playing like they did against Nebraska, Michigan, and (to some extent) Texas. If Ohio State steps on the gas and takes the ball out of Howard’s hand early, Notre Dame will lose. This has to be a low scoring game for Notre Dame because I don’t think they score more than 17 points.

Ohio State has been the best team in college football since Oregon’s loss in October. He’s been phenomenal and has so many talented, veteran players that Leonard will have a hard time moving. Who are you going to beat on the bench? Notre Dame will have to create a shortstop and hope Ohio State has some self-inflicted wounds. Notre Dame fans should expect Ohio State to kill off every first down.

So, last pick of the season. We are 56-33 against the spread (62.9%) in our picks heading into Monday. I think Ohio State will cover the 8.5 point spread and maybe everyone will come out of Day in Columbus.

Pick: Ohio State 35, Notre Dame 17 (Ohio State -8.5)

Joel Klatt is the lead college football game analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.“Follow him on @joelklatt and subscribe to the “Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.

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