Coach of the Year? Do Bills have fatal flaw? How to explain Chiefs’ historic streak?

The old saying is that nothing is certain except death and taxes. Now we can add another certainty to the list: the Chiefs winning one-score games. It seems like a tough way to become the first team ever to win three straight Super Bowls, but the Chiefs are making it work week after week. 

In this week’s roundtable, FOX Sports’ NFL experts try to contextualize Kansas City’s historic streak. We also tackle several other topics, including whether the Bills’ loss last week revealed a fatal flaw, who should win Coach of the Year and which are the teams no one should want to face in the postseason. 

Let’s get started.

So the Chiefs won their 15th straight one-score game, the longest such streak in NFL history. It’s almost becoming ho-hum, but where does this rank among league achievements? How do you put it into context?

The streak is a bit of an oddity, but it does speak well of the Chiefs. It’s probably a little like teams that win a lot of one-run games in baseball. There’s a bit of luck involved, but it also means you’ve got a fundamentally sound team that doesn’t melt in tough situations and does the little things right. That’s the Chiefs in a nutshell under Andy Reid. They’re a battle-tested team that’s strong enough and smart enough to overcome any small flaws.

That bodes well for them in the playoffs, where they’ll play the best teams and games are much more likely to come down to the fourth quarter. Sure, it would be easier on everyone if they were blowing teams out, but that’s not usually what happens in the postseason. You need teams and coaching staffs that understand the details that can’t be overlooked when a game is on the line in the fourth quarter. In those situations, the Chiefs are winners. That may be vague, but in close games it matters a lot. — Ralph Vacchiano

Every time the Chiefs win another one of these games, they’re testing what we think we know about the NFL. It’s better to be in the Lions’ situation, where they blow out teams and, at times, rest their starters at the end of games. It’s low stress. It’s high execution. It’s a factory line. And yet, Kansas City is establishing its own way of doing things, and given the team’s track record of winning close games during the Patrick Mahomes era, it’s hard to argue that they can’t keep doing this. The Chiefs won their past two Super Bowls by three points. This might just be how they do it. A win is a win. Ultimately, I think we’ll forget this achievement if they don’t win the Super Bowl. But if they do end up winning, this will absolutely be one of the most interesting elements of the 2024 Chiefs’ résumé. And it’ll continue to cement Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes as two of the best closers in NFL history.  — Henry McKenna

The streak is a memorable side note in the Hall of Fame careers of head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes. But other than that, I wouldn’t put too much stock into it. Specifically, with the way some of the games have been won — like a field goal pouncing off an upright through the goal posts for the winning score — it had more to do with the ball bouncing a certain way than execution. Give credit to Reid for putting his team in a position to win those games, along with Mahomes and his ability to expertly and consistently execute late-game situations. However, the football gods have been on Kansas City’s side through this streak.  — Eric D. Williams 

Did the Bills‘ 44-42 loss to the Rams in Week 14 reveal a fatal flaw for Buffalo?

Sometimes games do get out of hand like this one did, and it’s not usually wise to read a lot into it when it happens. But I do think this game put a spotlight on a flaw everyone already knew was there. When games come down to wild finishes and things get a little crazy in the fourth quarter, Bills coach Sean McDermott and his team tend to make some mistakes. And while that might not cost them against everyone, it’s a glaring flaw when they have to play a team like the Chiefs and a coach like Andy Reid.

McDermott made several questionable decisions late in this game, and it’s hard to imagine Reid making the same mistakes. That’s not to say that McDermott is a bad coach. It’s really more about Reid being on another level. That’s probably an unfair comparison because Reid is going to the Hall of Fame someday, but that’s the level the Bills are trying to play at. They want a Super Bowl championship, and they have to get through Reid and the Chiefs to do it. They’re good enough to do that. But they might need to win comfortably, because in a tight game in the playoffs, would anyone put their money on McDermott out-coaching Reid? — Ralph Vacchiano

I wouldn’t say fatal, but maybe concerning. The Bills have scored 30 or more points in seven straight, so it takes a defensive collapse to set up a close game like the loss to the Rams. Buffalo, much more than in any season in the Josh Allen/Sean McDermott era, is a turnover-driven team. The Bills are plus-17 in turnover margin, matching the Steelers for best in the NFL. And when takeaways aren’t there as an advantage — as was the case against Los Angeles, and in a lopsided loss to the Ravens in Week 4 — they’re not the same dominant team. I wouldn’t be as concerned about endgame mistakes as with Buffalo giving up six drives of 65-plus yards to a Rams offense that hadn’t scored more than 30 points in a game all season. That side of the ball, without the help of takeaways, can be a vulnerability in the postseason. — Greg Auman

Bills coach Sean McDermott might be improving as a game manager and decision-maker, but as the seconds wound down in the Rams’ win, we saw that he still has a long way to go. That might be this team’s biggest flaw. Otherwise, Buffalo had everything working for them. FOX Sports analyst Tom Brady went so far as to say the Bills were “in great position” with one minute and six seconds left and three timeouts. “They just can’t do anything in-bounds at this point,” Brady said. Two plays later, the Bills ran the ball in-bounds. And later, offensive coordinator Joe Brady admitted that lost the game for Buffalo. So if you want to beat the Bills, put them into a challenging late-game situation where, maybe, McDermott will struggle with the clock and accidentally prevent Josh Allen from taking over the game. — Henry McKenna

[McKenna: Could Sean McDermott’s game management cost the Bills a shot at the title?]

Before their Week 11 bye, the Cardinals were 6-4 and looking like a playoff team. Three losses later, they’re a long shot. Is this on Kyler Murray? Is he a true franchise quarterback?

Earlier this season, Murray had worked himself into the MVP conversation and showed more leadership in taking over the team. However, he has regressed to his former ways during Arizona’s three-game losing streak, with just three touchdowns and five interceptions since the bye. Murray remains a franchise quarterback who can lead his team on a deep postseason run. He’s still just 27 years old and growing as a quarterback. And head coach Jonathan Gannon is only in his second season of a full rebuild in Arizona. The Cardinals are a year early in competing for postseason consideration, and Murray will be in a better position in 2025 with more talent on the roster and another year to grow as a player and person. — Eric D. Williams 

It’s not all on Kyler Murray, but it’s definitely on him. He’s not playing particularly well, and the thought that Marvin Harrison Jr. would cure all the Cardinals’ ills has not come to fruition. Sometimes I wonder if offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is so concerned with breaking tendency that he hasn’t formed an identity. The Cardinals force the ball to Trey McBride in the red area, where he still has zero touchdowns. They only have two games all year where Harrison has had double-digit targets. Get him the ball. It feels like the passing game needs more consistency and if Murray can’t bring it, then that’s Petzing’s job. There’s just not a whole lot of cohesion in this offense. Murray has been such a talented player for so long. We’ve seen him put up monster numbers. But we’ve never seen him win. And I wrote in our QB stock watch that I think he needs to learn to play boring, to avoid the low-lows, which might mean deciding not to go after a highlight-reel high. Because while Murray continues to be prolific, the Cardinals continue to be irrelevant. — Henry McKenna

The NFL Coach of the Year race has a lot of candidates. Who’s most deserving: Dan Campbell, Mike Tomlin, Kevin O’Connell, Sean Payton, Nick Sirianni, Matt LeFleur, Jim Harbaugh? Someone else?

I’d say Dan Campbell. A legitimate candidate for Coach of the Year each of the previous two seasons, Campbell continues to elevate the Lions, who have remained unfazed by mounting expectations. His ability to keep raising the bar can’t be understated. Detroit went from bottom-dweller (2021) to just barely missing the playoffs (2022) to NFC conference finalist (2023) and Super Bowl favorite this season ahead of the playoffs. No coach has his team playing at a higher level this year than Campbell. 

And this season may offer Campbell’s best chance to win Coach of the Year for the foreseeable future. If the Lions maintain their dominance over the coming seasons, Campbell could become an afterthought for the award, similar to the Chiefs’ Andy Reid, who has won the award just once (2002 with the Eagles) despite winning three Super Bowls with the Chiefs. The award typically favors coaches who turned around a struggling team. — Ben Arthur

Tomlin is the guy for me. At the start of the season, few believed the Steelers had a legitimate shot to win the AFC North. Most snickered at the prospect of a quarterback competition between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, two players other organizations had moved on from. But Tomlin has the last laugh, with the Steelers in a position to win the division and host a playoff game. Plus, Tomlin has put Wilson back on a Hall of Fame trajectory. As usual, Pittsburgh has one of the best defenses in the league, and Wilson’s playmaking ability gives the Steelers a chance to compete against the elite teams in the AFC. — Eric D. Williams 

[Williams: Why Russell Wilson isn’t quite a Hall of Fame quarterback — yet]

I’m going to say Kevin O’Connell. To let Kirk Cousins walk and lose J.J. McCarthy for the entire season, but to still be able to win with Sam Darnold speaks volumes to how well O’Connell should rank among the offensive minds in this league. To bring in defensive signings like Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel and see that unit thrive under Brian Flores, this is a team that made so many sound personnel decisions in the offseason and has stayed right in the Lions’ rear-view window, keeping pressure on them. As Detroit has battled injury after injury, Minnesota is right there, potentially stealing the top seed in the NFC in the final weeks of the season, and O’Connell has been the steady leader all year. — Greg Auman

With the playoff picture coming into focus, what’s your pick for the team no one wants to face in the postseason?

I’m going to say the Minnesota Vikings. Sam Darnold is a bit of a wild card, but for most of this season, he has shown us that he’s a high-level quarterback in Kevin O’Connell’s scheme. You also can’t discount how Jordan Addison has erupted as the WR2 next to Justin Jefferson in recent weeks. Addison has more than 150 receiving yards in two of his past three games. The Vikings boast one of the best offenses in football overall. And you can’t forget about their defense. It’s been dominant all year, and coordinator Brian Flores’ pressure packages will be a handful for opposing teams to deal with in the playoffs. Momentum at the end of the regular season is typically a good indicator of who’s legitimate entering the playoffs, and the Vikings have the league’s third-longest win streak at six games. This is a team that still has a fighting chance to win the NFC North, too, despite all the headlines that the Lions have drawn. — Ben Arthur

[Arthur: Bills, Steelers headline 6 teams no one should want to face in NFL playoffs]

The team that stands out to me is the one I thought would win the Super Bowl this year, and I still can’t believe they’re only 8-5. Despite that record, the Baltimore Ravens are clearly the most dangerous of the non-division-leading teams in the entire NFL. And I don’t think anyone in the AFC wants to face them.

They are still the NFL’s best offense. And the 1-2 punch of quarterback Lamar Jackson and running back Derrick Henry is the NFL’s best. Jackson (29 touchdown passes, three interceptions) is having another MVP-caliber season and Henry (1,407 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns) would be in the MVP conversation, too, if Saquon Barkley wasn’t having a historic season in Philadelphia. Their defense has cost them too often this season, but even that is rounding into form. The past three weeks, against three playoff teams (the Steelers, Chargers and Eagles), the Ravens have given up an average of only 280 yards.

And don’t forget, this is a team that went to the AFC Championship Game last season, so the Ravens are battle-tested, too. They will not be an easy out even though they’ll probably have to play all their playoff games on the road. — Ralph Vacchiano

The following writers contributed to this story: Ben Arthur (@benyarthur); Greg Auman (@gregauman); Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis); Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano); Eric D. Williams (@eric_d_williams).

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