49ers should explore all options before extending Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy’s current contract is one of the simplest in the NFL.

It’s four years. There are no options. It is worth $3.7 million during that period. There are no bonuses beyond his signing bonus: $77,000, the NFL equivalent of telling a barista to keep the change.

But that small, simple agreement is what makes his next contract so complicated.

The negotiations loom large for the San Francisco 49ers, and the urgency of a new (and massive) deal will only increase, starting this offseason, when he becomes eligible for an extension for the first time. To complicate matters, it showed more vulnerabilities in 2024 than we’ve ever seen. It has been at its worst when financial risks were at stake.

For one thing, you are not negotiating from a position of power. His contract is the most favorable situation for the team in the NFL. He’s not playing well. And he’s a recent Mr. Irrelevant, which means there probably aren’t many general managers in the league who were happy that he came out of the draft three years ago and are now thinking: Let’s build around that.

On the other hand, he is a star quarterback, who recorded 4,280 passing yards and 31 passing touchdowns in 2023. He is 4-2 in the playoffs. If the 49ers aren’t going to pay him, someone else will. And if that other team can get Purdy back to fitness by 2023, that will jeopardize the jobs of general manager John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan if they don’t find a comparable replacement.

There’s still a lot we don’t know about his upcoming deals: Where does Purdy think his value lies? Would Dak Prescott’s $60 million annual salary hold up? And to what extent do the 49ers like Purdy, or feel they need him, to be successful?

We’ve never seen a contract mushroom like Purdy’s soon-to-be will. He is scheduled to make $1 million in 2025. With an extension, his cap hit could multiply 50-60 times.

If it’s the top end, the 49ers have to figure out where to make that $59 million per year. Salary cap math is as much voodoo as it is science. But just for context, you can add up the cap hits for left tackle Trent Williams ($22 million), receiver Deebo Samuel ($16 million), running back Christian McCaffrey ($10 million) and edge Leonard Floyd ($10 million). and you. obtain 58 million dollars. I’m not saying that if you sign Purdy, you’ll instantly lose all of those players. Or any of them (immediately). The 49ers have $66 million in cap space, according to Over The Cap. In fact, they can afford Purdy’s new deal. But times have been happy and happy in San Francisco. Things will get more difficult if Purdy gets paid.

Look at how the Chiefs and Bills have had to make tough decisions over the past few years. A quarterback extension changes the financial foundation of a team. Since Patrick Mahomes’ historic extension, the Chiefs have shed Pro Bowl talent, parting ways with cornerback La’Jarius Snead (2024), tackle Orlando Brown (2023) and receiver Tyreek Hill (2022). And the Bills had a massive turnover offseason in 2024 (which is what I think the aging 49ers might have to do), with the departures of receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, cornerback Tre’Davious White, safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde and center Mitch Morse. That’s largely due to Josh Allen’s contract.

That is What would come next for San Francisco?.

You lose your stars in the offseason because of the quarterback.

But you still win during the season, thanks to your quarterback.

Is this what Purdy will look like?

The 49ers could be getting a preview of what’s to come. After coming within one play of winning the Super Bowl last season, injuries have hampered their performance in 2024 as much as any team in the league, with Williams, Samuel, McCaffery, Jordan Mason, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle missing multiple games each. one, and that’s just on offense. McCaffrey and Aiyuk have been absent for most of the season.

Meanwhile, Purdy has struggled to determine how much he can step up for the 49ers. He seems to want to take charge of games, but lacks the talent to do so. Every week has been a game of Goldilocks: too hot, too cold, perfect.

Week 7 against Kansas City? Too hot. Too daring. Too daring. He was 17 of 31 for 212 yards and three interceptions with two rushing touchdowns. He missed some touchdown opportunities by throwing off his receivers. Afterward, Shanahan and Purdy had a long conversation in front of the QB’s locker in front of the media, a rare public display for Shanahan.

“Is there more pressure to put on a Superman cape and do more? No,” Purdy said after the game. “In my opinion, we have a lot of talent.”

Week 12 against Buffalo? Too cold. It was literally cold and snowing. Purdy could do nothing, continuing his history of struggling in inclement weather: 11 of 18 for 94 yards and two carries for four yards. That’s all. That’s the whole stat line. Definitely too cold.

“It sucks” Purdy said after the game.. “Now here we are, 5-7. That’s the reality. That’s the NFL. But we’ve got to man up and do something about it, and we’ve got the right guys in the locker room to do it. I know that. I have faith in that. .And it all starts with myself too. I have to do my job better.”

Week 13 against the Bears? Perfect. Purdy seemed to understand his role in the offense as a distributor, even when his guys were star replacements. Purdy relied on Kittle (151 receiving yards), receiver Jauan Jennings (90 receiving yards) and running back Isaac Guerendo (128 receiving yards). The 49ers defeated the Bears, 38-13, and Purdy had three touchdown passes. Purdy apparently gave a pregame speech that was electrifying.

“He is a tremendous leader,” Lynch said. “First of all, how he played against the Bears, I saw a guy play with conviction, with confidence, with a competitive spirit and then he just played at a really high level. I threaded the needle on some of those balls. Great. “He played aggressive. “It was really classic Brock.”

It can be argued that Purdy’s season is primarily a product of game plans gone awry and factors outside of his control. Purdy had no say in the slow negotiations over Aiyuk and Williams’ contracts, which resulted in slow starts for both players. The injuries to Aiyuk and McCaffrey were a stroke of terrible luck. And it didn’t help that this seemed to be the season that NFL defenses figured out how to stop Shanahan’s offense. Ask CJ Stroud and once-in-demand offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik what that’s felt like for them. (They run the Shanahan system).

Shanahan wouldn’t hurt to see how Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell, with QB Sam Darnold, has evolved his offense since working with Sean McVay.

But it’s also up to a franchise quarterback to put out these fires and create a sense of continuity, even when there isn’t any. When we return to the change in salary cap numbers, we will return to the talent drain of members of his supporting cast who (if we trust what we saw in 2024) are essential to his success.

And speaking of Darnold, he will enter free agency after this season. He spent a year in San Francisco, which seemed to be the turning point in his career. Might Shanahan be interested? Maybe for 35 to 40 million dollars a year? And speaking of the 2025 offseason, the draft is lacking top-tier talent, but has a pretty solid stock of Day 2 quarterbacks. I could see that Shanahan liked the unique combination of arm talent and athleticism that comes with prospects like Jalen Milroe, Quinn Ewers and/or Jaxson Dart. If the 49ers don’t like the quarterbacks in this year’s class, they could take a look at the 2026 class if Purdy negotiations extend into the 2025 regular season.

The 49ers don’t have to rush Purdy.

He’s on his rookie contract through 2025. The franchise tag is technically an option through 2028, even if they’d actually only use it once to go through 2026.

We keep saying that at some point, an NFL team will buck the trend of paying quarterbacks and driving the market. Because I think we can be honest in saying that it’s getting out of hand. Jordan Love is clearly a good quarterback, but he received $220 million ($55 million a year) after just one season as a starter. Trevor Lawrence received $275 million ($55 million a year) after achieving absolutely nothing. Dak is a prolific passer, but are we sure he’s worth $60 million a year? Just wait to see what Mahomes and Allen get this offseason when they move back up.

If there’s any coach and general manager combination that can manage to rebuke their quarterback’s contractual demands, it’s Shanahan and Lynch. Think about how they seamlessly transitioned Jimmy Garoppolo to Purdy in 2022 and how quickly Garoppolo’s play declined after leaving San Francisco. Purdy is a better player than Garoppolo. (That became very clear in 2022 when Purdy improved the offense Garoppolo had been running.) But Garoppolo’s decline makes one wonder if Shanahan and the 49ers’ skill players have been holding back Purdy’s production, making him replaceable.

I don’t think the 49ers have the guts to replace Purdy. Shanahan still loves Purdy despite his difficult season, according to MMQB’s Albert Breer. But he’s done enough this year to cast doubt on whether Purdy will be as good as his supporting cast. That type of quarterback won’t do well when he’s making $60 million a season. And that type of contract can ruin a franchise for the foreseeable future. It would be wise to wait until at least 2025, because even if they end up paying $65 million a year in 2026, they can do so with confidence.

You can’t have much confidence in Purdy after what he did in 2024.

It cannot be said with certainty that he deserves to reset the market for any reason other than modern convention: he is next.

You can’t pay Purdy. Not yet.

Select a quarterback. Deal with the headlines, the optics and the awkwardness. If a rookie ruins Purdy’s confidence, then you probably don’t want him anyway. But, above all, see if Purdy can get his record contract in a decisive 2025 season. Make sure the 2024 season is the exception, not the rule, for Purdy.

Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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