NFL Week 18 Picks, Prop Betting, Waiver Wire Pickups and Daily Fantasy Tips

NFL Week 18 is right around the corner, and while most of the playoff bracket is already set, there are still a few games this week that have several postseason implications heading into wild card weekend.

And if you’re in a fantasy football league that’s still playing through the final week of the regular season, you’ll be paying close attention to these matchups, too.

Below, FOX Sports Research has outlined several picks, prop bets to place, notable players worth adding to your daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineup, and several waiver picks that could win you your league in Week 18 .Let’s get into it. .

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Selections

Bengals at Steelers (Cincinnati -1.5)

Behind Joe Burrow’s spectacular play, Cincinnati is still in the playoff hunt at 8-8 entering Week 18. If the Broncos lose to the Chiefs (who are sitting starters because they’ve already clinched the No. 1 seed) and the Dolphins lose to the Jets, the Bengals win. Note that Tua Tagovailoa did not play last week and is still questionable as of Tuesday. We like Zac Taylor and company to get the win against a Steelers team that has already clinched a playoff spot. Below are some nuggets that point to why we think the Bengals will cover the spread:

• The Bengals are 10-6 ATS this season and have covered in their last four games.
• The Bengals are 7-1 ATS and 5-3 SU in their last eight road games.
• The Bengals are 28-11 ATS and 21-17-1 SU in road games under Joe Burrow.
• Joe Burrow is 2-1 ATS and 3-0 SU in his career when playing in Weeks 17 and 18.
• Joe Burrow has 10 games with more than 250 yards passing and three touchdown passes this season, the fourth player in NFL history to have more than 10 such games in a season; the other three are Patrick Mahomes in 2018 (10), Peyton Manning in 2013 (11) and Tom Brady in 2007 (10) (all three won the MVP that season).

Bosses in Broncos (OVER 38.5)

Bookmakers have set this total so low due to the cold weather along with the fact that the Chiefs will be without most of their key players. But the Broncos have everything to play for and have been shining on offense this season. They are one of seven teams to have hit the Over in at least 65% of their games and are averaging 31.7 points per game (PPG) since Week 11, the fourth most of any team in that span.

Kansas City also has more firepower to offer than most people expect, as Carson Wentz will replace Andy Reid this Sunday. In his 94 career starts, Wentz’s teams have averaged 23.9 points per game, which should be more than enough considering the Broncos will also be contributing to the total. And don’t forget that you’ll be throwing to the same receivers you practice with, as all No. 2s should have plenty of burn.

49ers at Cardinals (Arizona ML: -198)

With Brock Purdy aggravating an elbow injury, we’re surprised the odds of winning for this game aren’t higher. While both teams have already been eliminated from playoff contention, Kyler Murray and the Cardinals will still look to finish the season on a high note against an injury-plagued 49ers team. Below are some notes that point to Arizona getting the win on Sunday:

• Kyler Murray is 4-2-1 ATS and 3-4 SU against the 49ers in his career.
• The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS and SU in their last five home games.
• The Cardinals are 7-3 ATS and 5-5 SU in their last few games.
• The 49ers are 1-7 ATS and 2-6 SU in their last eight games.
• The 49ers are 1-4 ATS 2-3 SU in their last five road games.

Prop Bets to Make

Najee Harris any time TD scorer: +110

While Najee Harris only has five touchdowns on the season, he has two things going for him. The first is that they face a Bengals team that is allowing 128 rushing yards per game (fifth most of any AFC team) and has also allowed 19 rushing touchdowns this season, one of eight teams this season that allows that amount.

The second is that he is the focal point of Pittsburgh’s running attack, with his 251 carries being the seventh-most of any player in the league. He is also one of just 13 players to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards and score at least five touchdowns. Harris is currently +110 for scoring a touchdown at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Trey Hendrickson will record one sack: -130

This bet feels like free money, as Trey Hendrickson is currently tied with Myles Garrett for the league lead in sacks with 14. Pittsburgh hasn’t had the best offensive line play this year either, allowing 45 sacks (10th most in the NFL). ) and 142 team pressures allowed (11th most in the NFL) this season. Dan Moore Jr. and Broderick Jones, the Steelers’ starting offensive tackles, have allowed 20 sacks and 77 pressures combined according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). They join Tennessee’s Nicholas Petit-Frere as the only tackles to allow 10 sacks this season. Hendrickson is currently -130 to record a sack on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Tim Patrick will record a reception of 20+ yards: +200

Tim Patrick has had a commendable season as the Lions’ third receiver this season, totaling 31 receptions for 379 yards. While he hasn’t recorded a reception in consecutive weeks, he racked up at least 25 receiving yards in each of the five games before that. His three receiving touchdowns also came in the last four weeks. With a big matchup against the Vikings this week, we expect that to come into the mix with all the attention likely directed at Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, who have already totaled 1,000 yards from scrimmage each along with a total combined. 20 touchdowns between the two. Patrick is currently +200 to record a reception of 20+ yards on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Undervalued Daily Fantasy Picks (DraftKings Sportsbook Values)

Aaron Rodgers: $5,600

While Aaron Rodgers is nearing the end of what is statistically the worst season of his career, his value against a mediocre Dolphins defense this week remains high. Before the 40-14 blowout against the Bills last week, A-Rod was averaging 294.7 passing yards per game over the previous three weeks and had a five-to-zero touchdown/interception ratio in that span. For perspective, his current price of $5,600 is the same as Caleb Williams and Carson Wentz, but lower than Bryce Young and Drake Maye.

Ray Davis: $5,200

Ray Davis’ price may seem a little high at $5,200, but that’s because he’s capable of running amok against a Patriots run defense that allows 131.4 rushing yards per game (eighth worst in the league). In Week 6 against the Jets, he had 20 carries for 97 yards and three receptions for 55 yards. Expect him to get as many touches and take advantage of them against a 3-13 New England team.

Michael Carter: $4,700

James Conner injured his knee last week, and with Arizona already out of the playoffs, it will probably be the Michael Carter Show on Sunday. After entering the game for Conner, he finished last week with 13 carries for 70 yards in just his second appearance of the season. Trey Benson could share the rushing duties with him, but the Florida State rookie only had five carries last week and has been somewhat disappointing after a stellar season with the Seminoles.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: $4,400

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has been a silent killer all season. He averaged 16 yards per reception and is one of 10 NFL players with nine or more receiving touchdowns. His current price of $4,400 seems very reasonable, especially considering he has 10 goals and a touchdown in his last two games. He faces a Texans defense that has allowed 30 touchdown passes this season, the third most of any team in the league.

Atwell tutu: $3,800

Tutu Atwell has only seen seven goals in his last four games, but his playmaking ability and elite speed make him worth the risk. He has 525 receiving yards this season despite having just 37 receptions on 54 targets. Atwell is yet to score this season, making her our riskiest pick in this group. But is there a better time to score than against a division rival in the final game of the season?

Justin Watson: $3,500

As we mentioned earlier, Carson Wentz is starting and all of the No. 2s will likely see plenty of action. You have to think these two have a good relationship with each other after connecting in practice over the last 18 weeks. Justin Watson scored his second touchdown of the season last week and recorded a season-high 60 yards receiving. He could be set to have a career day against a Broncos pass defense that allows 230.1 passing yards per game, eighth most in the league.

Exemption Cable Pickups to Make

Joe Skinny

Who knows if we’ll get another season of the timeless wonder that is Joe Flacco. But until then, you’ll have to monitor this until Sunday, as reports have indicated that Anthony Richardson will start if he’s healthy. If not, Flacco is an option worth picking up if you need a quarterback. In five starts this season, he has thrown for over 270 yards in three of them, along with 11 touchdown passes in seven appearances. You have to imagine Shane Steichen will let him air what could be his swan song.

Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. has only had 35 carries for 173 rushing yards this season, but that’s a direct result of Washington’s running back-by-committee approach. He took advantage of a Brian Robinson Jr. touchdown last week, and with the Commanders already in the playoffs, there’s a good chance he’ll get more touches this week. And it comes at the absolutely perfect time, when Washington faces Dallas, who are allowing 138.6 rushing yards per game, the fourth-worst mark in the league.

Marvin Mims

The former Oklahoma receiver had a day last week, catching two touchdown passes and recording eight receptions for 103 receiving yards. The Broncos are still fighting for a playoff spot, so they’ll need Marvin Mims to put in a similar performance against what should be the Chiefs’ backups. In last week’s game against the Bengals, he was targeted a season-high eight times and caught all eight balls.

Mike Gesicki

Simply put, this is a Joe Burrow play. He has thrown three touchdowns in eight consecutive games, becoming the fourth player in NFL history to accomplish that feat, joining Tom Brady (10 in 2007), Andrew Luck (eight in 2018) and Peyton Manning (eight in 2004). . Mike Gesiciki’s only two touchdowns of the year came in Week 9. If Burrow continues this hot streak, Gesicki could be worth the risk if you’re desperate for a tight end in Week 18.