NFL Playoffs Briefing: From the expected (Chiefs) to the unexpected (Jayden Daniels)

Editor’s Note: Throughout the NFL playoffs, Chris Myers and his research team analyze upcoming matchups, while providing news, notes, and nuggets for inside access to the information an NFL broadcaster uses to prepare for calling a game.

The championship games have reduced the field of teams who can hoist the Lombardi Trophy at the end of Super Bowl LIX to the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs, a pair of No. 1 seeds in the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles, and the upstart wild-card and sixth-seeded Washington Commanders.

From a historical standpoint, the Bills are the underdog as the only one of the four teams without multiple Super Bowl championships. In fact, they own none despite now having 21 victories in other postseason games (the Vikings have also won 21 postseason games without one of them being in a Super Bowl).

From a recent historical standpoint, the Commanders are the outliers. The Chiefs, Bills and Eagles are all in the playoffs for at least the fourth straight season. The Commanders, on the other hand, had gone seven seasons without a winning record prior to 2024 and had not won a playoff game since the 2005 postseason.

The Commanders are seeking to become the fifth team to make the Super Bowl in the season following a four-win campaign — most recently the 2021 Bengals, who went 4-11-1 in Joe Burrow’s rookie 2020 season. All four of those teams played fewer than the current 17 games, so the 2024 Commanders would be the first team to lose 13 or more games in the season prior to a Super Bowl appearance.

Of those four teams, only the 1999 St. Louis Rams managed to win the big game.

Kansas City’s Arrowhead Stadium (sixth time) and Philadelphia’s Lincoln Financial Field (fifth time) are familiar sites for a championship game. In fact, two years ago, the Chiefs and Eagles both prevailed at home to advance to a rousing Super Bowl in Arizona won by Kansas City, 38-35.

The two home teams open as slight favorites this weekend to stage that rematch (Chiefs -1.5, Eagles -4.5), although it was the Bills and Commanders who prevailed in the most recent respective meeting earlier this season. 

Surprisingly, the NFC North does not have a team in the NFC Championship Game. During the regular season, the Lions, Vikings and Packers went a combined 40-11 (34-5 if you throw out the games with each other). But in the postseason, they were 0-3 with each defeat by at least 12 points. Only the Lions (at 7-3 and 14-10 in the first half) ever held a lead.

CHRIS MYERS ANALYSIS: “The quality of the four divisional games was an improvement over Wild Card Weekend with a dramatic upset on Saturday night on FOX and two intriguing, closely-fought snow games on Sunday. 

“In the AFC, Josh Allen and the Bills at Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs is a matchup we can all get behind. Based on Buffalo’s determination this season and Kansas City’s winning brinksmanship, this has to be a closely-fought thriller, doesn’t it?

“In the NFC, it’s an all-NFC East affair. In the two previous matchups, the Eagles won by eight at home in November, while the Commanders pulled out the late three-point win in Week 16. Jayden Daniels has been the best quarterback in these playoffs — will that continue and be decisive on Sunday?  Or will Philadelphia’s lines continue to assert home dominance? We can’t wait to see.

DIVISIONAL ROUND REACTION

Kansas City Chiefs 24, Houston Texans 15

The Chiefs moved on to the AFC Championship Game for the seventh consecutive year. They will host the game for the sixth time, all but last year in Baltimore. The Chiefs are 4-2 in those games, losing to Tom Brady and New England in 2018, and Joe Burrow and the Bengals in 2021. 

It was Kansas City’s 12th win by single-digits (albeit not one-score) this extended season. As is often the case, the KC victory was accompanied by a furor from outside Chiefs Kingdom about officials’ decisions that benefited the Chiefs.

There were two calls that produced 30 yards for the Chiefs (and one negated a third-down stop) on Saturday, drawing ire from the Texans, fans and many in the media, and potentially altered the outcome. The 2024 Chiefs actually had a pretty average record in terms of overall penalties this year. But they were the beneficiaries of numerous high-profile and questionable calls, including the Bengals losing when they were called for a ticky-tack pass interference penalty when the next week Baltimore lost when an obvious DPI by Kansas City went uncalled.

In any case, this Sunday’s AFC Championship Game officiating crew will be under extra scrutiny.

ONE THING WE LIKED FROM THE BROADCAST: ESPN covered the two controversial calls well, with good camera work and succinct commentary. ESPN’s rules analyst Russell Yurk, might not have been an on-field official, but he has a vast amount of experience in the replay room and he gives a firm opinion after backing it up with a clear, succinct explanation. He’s a fine addition to the rules analyst position first perfected by Mike Pereira and Dean Blandino at FOX.

CHRIS MYERS’ ANALYSIS: “It wasn’t a dominant slam-dunk performance from the Chiefs, but that’s not who they are anymore — they play close games and they win them.

“The Texans came to play and gave it their best shot with C.J. Stroud, Joe Mixon and Will Anderson among those showing up big. Prior to this game, teams were 48-0 in the postseason when they gained 100+ more yards than their opponent and had zero turnovers. But some shaky special teams play gave the Chiefs the opening needed for their winning margin — a margin that ended up making both winners and losers of those who bet on the Texans.

“The NFL Office is able to whisper in the official’s ears on certain plays, such as when they rectified an egregious spot that favored the Chiefs. But, on other plays, such as roughing the passer, they feel they have to let the officials take the heat. With replay, better communication and additional cameras in the playoffs, you have the technology to correct errors on 15-yard plays like roughing the passer and face mask grabs. Why leave it on the field where officials may be out of position or looking at the wrong thing?

“The Chiefs have been good enough not to need to get the benefit of calls, but going forward, does the NFL want another call or calls widely perceived as wrong to be the difference in a KC three-peat.”

Buffalo Bills 27, Baltimore Ravens 25

The Bills secured a hard-fought victory to reach the AFC Championship Game for the second time in the Josh Allen Era. In the 2020 COVID season, the Chiefs beat them at home, 38-24. Since then, Kansas City has added two divisional-round wins over the Bills. In his three postseason meetings with the Chiefs, Allen has produced an average of 28 points per game, but is 0-3.

Lamar Jackson has now won 70 regular season games in seven seasons, but will once again not be playing in a Super Bowl. He’s 3-5 as a postseason starter, although this year’s “failure” seems more about circumstance than performance. In the 2024 postseason, he mirrored his regular season efforts with a 122.5 passer rating that included four touchdown passes, while rushing for 120 yards. Against the Bills, he did indeed commit two turnovers, but otherwise played well.

ONE THING WE LIKED FROM THE BROADCAST: “CBS, like NBC before it, has improved the use of “yellow line” technology to give fans at home a clear understanding of the field during snowy games. The enhanced lines and yard numerals kept us from getting lost like we used to.”

CHRIS MYERS’ ANALYSIS: “It will be a next-level AFC Championship Game as the Bills and Chiefs have another go-round to reach the Super Bowl. Unlike the NFC, this is the matchup most thought it would be and what many are looking forward to!

“Sunday’s game was not quite the showcase of MVP caliber QBs we expected as big plays were scarce. The game was more about the run and defense. However, that did change in the final minutes when Lamar Jackson had an MVP-like drive. We never got the chance to see if Josh Allen would have responded when Mark Andrews dropped a low pass that would have tied the game with a two-point conversion.

“Events ended up justifying Sean McDermott’s decision to take the late 21-yard field goal on fourth-and-2 to build an 8-point lead.”

AND IN THE NFC…

Washington Commanders 45, Detroit Lions 31

With the help of a pick-six return, the Commanders put up 45 points on the Lions, their highest point total in a game since 2015. As a result, Washington reached the NFC Championship Game for the first time since January 12, 1992, when George H. Bush was president. Ironically, their opponent then was Detroit, who broke a one-year shorter drought when they reached the championship game last year. The longest NFC gap now belongs to the Dallas Cowboys (1995).

The Commanders have had 16 full postseason possessions (plus three one-play kneel-downs), and punted just once. They have scored on 11 possessions (5 TDs, 6 FGs). None of the other four possessions ended with a turnover (3 times held on downs, 1 missed FG). 

Jayden Daniels has passed for 567 yards in the two wins, five yards from the rookie record for a postseason set by Russell Wilson at 572 yards. Two years ago, Brock Purdy seemed in line to break it, but he was hurt early in the 2022 NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia and finished at 569.

ONE THING WE LIKED FROM THE BROADCAST: “Plenty to like here, but we were taken with the extended graphic on the Lions and their “records” using a vinyl Motown theme.”

CHRIS MYERS’ ANALYSIS: “The quarterback was the difference! Jayden Daniels went to Detroit and with outstanding efforts from his Washington teammates, outplayed Jared Goff and the Lions. Daniels did this after going to Tampa Bay and outplaying Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers, so he has beaten two of the NFL’s most prolific veteran quarterbacks this postseason.

“I had the pleasure of calling three of Daniels’ games during the season, including his first NFL win, and in speaking with him, he was more impressed after each time. His talent on the field speaks for itself, his smile and swagger don’t speak loudly enough. He acts as if he’s already been there, or maybe as if he knows he’s going further.

“He passes with zip and accuracy. His running somehow combines being both wise and fearless. He has no problem processing and commanding Kliff Kingsbury’s offense and its wide variety of plays.

“One thing OC Kliff Kingsbury told me Daniels had to improve on was what he labeled ‘dirty throws.’ We saw that just before the TD pass that gave Washington a 31 -21 lead. Daniels understood that a developing play on an early down was not optimal and he threw it away and was willing to re-group on a later down.

“It all adds up to a seemingly unstoppable offense and the increased possibility that a rookie quarterback could win the Super Bowl for the first time in NFL history.”

Philadelphia Eagles 28, Los Angeles Rams 22

The Eagles scored three times on runs of 40+ yards and were plus-2 in turnovers, yet still were staring at defeat as the Rams advanced to second-and-2 at the Philadelphia 9-yard line in the final seconds.  But Jalen Carter roared up the middle for a big sack, a fourth-down pass went astray and the Eagles are hosting the NFC title game after Detroit’s defeat in the other divisional game.

Saquon Barkley had touchdown runs of 62 and 78 yards and became the first player in NFL history with four rushing touchdowns of 60+ yards against a single opponent, not just in an extended season, but in an entire career (hat tip OptaStats).

ONE THING WE LIKED FROM THE BROADCAST: NBC produced outstanding shots throughout this beautiful snowy game. One that stood out, was showing a closeup replay of Mathew Stafford’s eyes staring one way at the Eagles’ defense then throwing and completing a first-down pass the other way to Puka Nacua.”

CHRIS MYERS ANALYSIS: “For all the questions and critiques of their coach and quarterback, here are the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game for the second time in three seasons. The Eagles played safe but played smart, using home field, Philly weather and a takeaway defense to slide past the Rams. It might not have been as flashy, but it was functional and picturesque in the snow.

“As for the Rams, they played well in Philadelphia’s elements until a late meltdown. After their turnovers, the Rams seemed to adjust to the weather and the Eagles’ pass rush until it was too late. Still, it was a good season for the Rams and they seem to be building towards good things in the near future. It will be interesting to see if Matthew Stafford can persevere as the quarterback. He certainly continued to do good things in 2024.”

Chris Myers is an Emmy Award-winning play-by-play announcer, reporter and studio host for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @The_ChrisMyers.