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The race for the Liga title took another dramatic turn last weekend when Atlético Madrid claimed a last-minute 2-1 victory over Barcelona at the Montjuïc Olympic Stadium. This crucial victory propelled Atlético to the top of the table and ended an 18-year drought of away league wins against Barcelona. It has been years since LaLiga witnessed such a close title race between its three traditional powerhouses: Atlético Madrid, Barcelona and Real Madrid.
These matches have been the kryptonite of the Simeone era, with Atleti often struggling to show their best. Ironically, Atlético managed to win this match despite being once again dominated by a Barcelona team that created many more opportunities. However, football has never been about “deserving” to score: it’s about actually scoring. And Atleti is the one that was effective in scoring.
One could argue that this efficiency is unsustainable over the course of a season. However, Atlético have repeatedly demonstrated an uncanny ability to survive periods of underperformance and counterattack decisively in the final moments of the match. Remarkably, they have scored 13 of their 33 league goals (a staggering 40%) in the final 15 minutes of games this season. The list of victims of Atleti’s late goals is extensive, both in Spain (Celta, Barça, Rayo, Alavés, Sevilla, Real Madrid) and in Europe (PSG, Leipzig).
94′ Rapido vs Girona
92’Correa vs Athletic
94′ Julián vs Valencia
90’Josem vs Leipzig
90′ Julián vs Celta
95’Correa vs Real Madrid
99′ Sørloth vs Leganés
93′ Correa vs PSG
92′ Sørloth vs Valladolid
92′ De Paul vs Cacereño
96′ Julián vs Cacereño
94′ Grizi vs Sevilla
96′ Sørloth… pic.twitter.com/LZdTpl4Ua6— Atlético de Madrid (@Atleti) December 24, 2024
These results may not make sense to someone doing tactical or statistical analysis of matches, but in my opinion, these moments are the most fun part of football. Many analysts and analytics enthusiasts dismiss these moments as luck or randomness, but there is intellectual humility in recognizing that not everything can be fully explained by tactics or numerical models.
While skill and randomness explain a significant portion of under- or over-performance at expected goal (xG), psychological and dynamic contextual elements also play a role. A player’s confidence, mental state and concentration can significantly affect their finishing ability. For example, a player in good form may take risks he would not otherwise attempt or remain calmer in moments of high pressure, improving his conversion rate. Conversely, players who experience poor streaks may hesitate, overthink, or lose composure in front of goal, leading to worse results.
Certain game scenarios, such as the score, the stage of the competition or the presence of an audience, can influence players’ performance in relation to xG. A striker may excel in low-risk moments but struggle under intense pressure, or vice versa. These dynamic and context-dependent factors are difficult to quantify, but they undeniably have an impact and should not be confused with randomness. Many of the statistical analyzes I see online make the mistake of conflating dynamic and contextual factors with random ones, and these oversimplifications hinder the quality of the analysis.
✍️ @FedeeValverde He doesn’t score normal goals, pass him on.#LaLigaHighlights pic.twitter.com/5l88q6jEzN
— Real Madrid CF 🇬🇧🇺🇸 (@realmadriden) December 24, 2024
We have a large enough sample of this season to recognize that what is happening right now with Atleti is more than luck. His streak may not last forever – every good streak ends eventually – but he is a phenomenon that has already significantly shaped this season’s title race and will likely continue to shape it.
Barcelona, meanwhile, offers a stark contrast. As journalist Miguel Quintana points out, Hansi Flick’s Barça has not yet won a game it did not win.I “deserve” to win based on the underlying numbers. This could be fantastic for those who want to validate their xG models, but it poses a challenge for Barça’s title ambitions. Teams that lift trophies often find ways to pick up wins in games where they struggle or are outplayed, something Barça has yet to do.
This trait, however, is a hallmark of Real Madrid, who built their European empire on an uncanny ability to win games in which they were outmatched. There’s been less talk about it lately, but Real Madrid have been as adept as Atlético in ensuring they result in games where performance metrics suggest they shouldn’t have. This season, Real Madrid have also amassed a considerable list of victims in Spain and Europe who played as well, if not better than them (Alavés, Villarreal, Celta, Atalanta), but were beaten anyway.
4 – Barcelona has suffered 4 defeats in 18 games in LaLiga 2024/25 (W12 D2). Only twice has a team won the competition after losing +4 of its first 18 games of the season: Valencia in 1941/42 (W12 D2 L4) and also in 1946/47 (W10 D1 L7). Challenge. pic.twitter.com/6Dy3SHRLMM
— OptaJosé (@OptaJose) December 16, 2024
The first instinct of many analytics-obsessed fans might be to consult the xG table, identify the team with the best underlying numbers, and declare them the most likely champion because their football is “more sustainable.” However, the reality of football is much more dynamic than that. The opposite will decide La Liga: which team can prolong its good streaks the longest, navigate through chaotic and fluctuating moments and challenge the limits of what we can understand and quantify in mathematical models.
